978
FXUS61 KCLE 280532
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
132 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT WITH IT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IT BRIEFLY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION THAT EVENING. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND IT MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
9:30 PM UPDATE...
JUST MADE MINOR CHANGES TO MOVE THE HIGHER CHANCE POP AXIS
FARTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NE OHIO OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE
PAST HOUR MOVES EAST. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE FIRED ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THEN BECAME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED AFTER
INTERACTING WITH A WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH MAINLY WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL A BURST OF BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE
POSSIBLY ARRIVES WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. HREF GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THE HI-RES ARW WHICH
PERFORMED THE BEST TODAY, CONTINUES TO HINT AT THESE SHOWERS AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING, SO
LEFT THE REST OF THE POPS AS IS FROM ABOUT 06Z ONWARD.
6:30 PM UPDATE...
DECREASED POPS THE REST OF THE EVENING TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALMOST
AREAWIDE, EXCEPT LEFT CHANCE IN NW OHIO. ROUND TWO OF CONVECTION
IS STRUGGLING TO MATERIALIZE DESPITE AROUND 3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
THAT HAS RECOVERED IN MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS LIKELY SOME
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE, AND WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED FORCING HANGING BACK TO THE WEST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT,
SUSPECT THAT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
IN NW OHIO.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS STARTS TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN OHIO. THE EASTERN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN RIDING A 700MB NOSE OF MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO, LEAVING A RAIN COOLED POOL BEHIND IT THAT HAS
STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP A CUMULUS FIELD DURING THE MIDDAY. THIS
WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH AS THE WESTERN LINE OF STORMS MOVES
EAST INTO THAT POOL OF RAIN COOLED AIR AND IF IT WILL BE ABLE TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OR FALL APART IN THE LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS TIMING WILL PUT IT IN THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE
REGION, THOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF THERMODYNAMICS WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE LOW 90S OUT WEST AIDING IN THE
ELEVATED MLCAPE, AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG, AND DCAPE, UP TO 1200
J/KG. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL REPORTS
HAVE BEEN AROUND 1-1.5" ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN LAKE SHORE. PWAT
VALUES ARE BETTER TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL OHIO AT 1.5-2.0" WITH
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS AND WOULD BE LOCATION TO LOOK FOR IF
THERE WERE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
AS FOR THE WESTERN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING, IT IS
SITUATED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA UP INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN. CAMS HAVE
BEEN IN DISAGREEMENT OF THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LINE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. MOST MODELS DO HAVE THE LINE MOVING INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES BY 00-02Z. THE NAM NEST HAS VERIFIED THE BEST WITH
THE AFTERNOON STORMS WITH ITS COVERAGE AND STRENGTH, THOUGH IS
PROBABLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THIS EVENINGS STORMS. NONETHELESS,
IN THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE DCAPE AHEAD OF THE LINE AND THE LACK OF
SHEAR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE DRIVER OF TODAY'S UNSETTLED WEATHER IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL BE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT BEHIND THE
LINE OF STORMS WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE COLD
FRONT WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN OHIO SATURDAY MORNING AND BE EAST
OF AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE SHORT
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S, AND THUNDERSTORMS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT, POPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOWER END
MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG, THOUGH WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NOT ENTERING THE REGION UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT AND
TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN BEHIND. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BEING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE WESTERN COUNTIES
REACHING THE LOW 90S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY FAIRLY
MILD IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE LONG TERM WILL BE A QUIET STRETCH A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE MAYBE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT EXITS, BUT WILL
BECOME DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR POPS
WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL BE COMFORTABLE AND SEASONAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S, GIVING A NICE RELIEF FROM THE
HUMID CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BOUNDARY WITH SOME STORMS OVER LAKE ERIE SHOULD MISS KERI TO
THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE BOUNDARY IS
QUIET ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO FOR NOW. THERE ARE SOME MINOR RETURNS
AND SOME THICKER CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST OHIO, WHICH CONTINUE
TRANSLATING NORTHEAST. BELIEVE THAT CLOUD COVER WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EXPAND AND EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND DAWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THESE WILL EXPAND EAST, AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, AND
EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THAT STORMS WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF KCLE,
BUT THERE SHOULD BE CONVECTION TO DODGE FOR KMFD, KCAK, KYNG,
AND KERI AND HAVE SOME PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR AND TS FOR THESE
SITES - IT WILL EITHER BE A MISS OR A QUICK DOWNPOUR FOR THESE
TERMINALS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON
AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL
START SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KT AT
KERI WITH SOME SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN MORNING FOG ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MARINE
COLD FRONT FROM MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT CROSSING MOST OF THE LAKE
BY MID/LATE SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
FROM THE WEST WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO MAYBE 3 FEET. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A MODERATE SWIM RISK FROM
WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY IF WINDS COME IN A LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH
WAVES BUILDING. AT THIS POINT IN TIME NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS/23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...MM
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