041
FXUS61 KCLE 280603
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
203 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING, SETTLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AHEAD AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LINGERING
MOISTURE AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. CURRENTLY SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR ACROSS THE EASTERN
BASIN OF LAKE ERIE AND JUST WEST OF DAYTON, OH. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM THOSE TWO AREAS
AND PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND THE QUICK DEPARTURE TO THE
EAST AFTER SUNRISE, NOT EXPECTED MUCH IN TERMS OF IMPACTS BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK.
AS THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST, IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT DRY ACROSS
THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO IS
THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT THIS STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY RETURN OF INCREASED
MOISTURE AND WAA ACROSS THE AREA, BUT GIVEN LITTLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH HEAT
INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S. ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. GOOD NEWS IS THAT
MOISTURE VALUES WILL TAKE A BIT TO REBOUND, ALLOWING FOR DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURES NEAR ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, POPS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THESE SHOWERS, NOT EXPECTED ANYTHING IN TERMS OF SEVERE CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY VALUES RISING TO
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BECOME SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME THAT MAY
BECOME STRONG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE DISJOINTED TIMING
BETWEEN THE ARRIVAL OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND PEAK INSTABILITY
TIMING. ON MONDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT DRIVING MUCH OF THIS SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST AS THE PARENT LOW SHIFTS INTO
QUEBEC AND THE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING UPDATES. THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THREAT
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS AND PWAT VALUES
SURGING CLOSE TO 2" AGAIN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS APPROXIMATELY 0.5-
0.75" OF STORM TOTAL QPF ACROSS THE AREA. ON TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST, ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY TUESDAY EVENING.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BEFORE
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING AND FALLING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CANADA
WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO DECREASE ON THURSDAY AS
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. OPTED TO INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ENHANCING SURFACE SUPPORT THEN WANED ON POPS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MORE PLEASANT
AND SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S, PROVIDING A DECENT BREAK FROM THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS THE
AREA HAS SEEN LATELY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BOUNDARY WITH SOME STORMS OVER LAKE ERIE SHOULD MISS KERI TO
THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE BOUNDARY IS
QUIET ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO FOR NOW. THERE ARE SOME MINOR RETURNS
AND SOME THICKER CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST OHIO, WHICH CONTINUE
TRANSLATING NORTHEAST. BELIEVE THAT CLOUD COVER WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EXPAND AND EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND DAWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THESE WILL EXPAND EAST, AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, AND
EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THAT STORMS WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF KCLE,
BUT THERE SHOULD BE CONVECTION TO DODGE FOR KMFD, KCAK, KYNG,
AND KERI AND HAVE SOME PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR AND TS FOR THESE
SITES - IT WILL EITHER BE A MISS OR A QUICK DOWNPOUR FOR THESE
TERMINALS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON
AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL
START SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KT AT
KERI WITH SOME SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN MORNING FOG ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MARINE
COLD FRONT FROM MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT CROSSING MOST OF THE LAKE
BY MID/LATE SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
FROM THE WEST WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO MAYBE 3 FEET. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A MODERATE SWIM RISK FROM
WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY IF WINDS COME IN A LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH
WAVES BUILDING. AT THIS POINT IN TIME NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...MM
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