214
FXUS61 KCLE 290559
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
159 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER. A STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WITH
CLEAR SKIES IS ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL RATHER EFFICIENTLY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. GIVEN THE
FAIRLY WET SOIL CONDITIONS, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A DECENT AREA OF FOG DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US30. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES TRENDS IN
THE COMING HOURS FOR THE NEED OF ANY HEADLINES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT,
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TONIGHT, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, THE RETURN OF WAA AND A
MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. IN ADDITION, AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 2000+ J/G
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
INCREASES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BEST MESOSCALE SUPPORT IS DISJOINTED WITH
THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
IN ADDITION, PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE TO NEARLY 2" AGAIN,
WHICH COUPLED WITH DEEPENING WARM CLOUD LAYERS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY
EFFICIENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL, CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. SPC AND WPC HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
THESE CONCERNS WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND IN THE
ERO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S. AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA, MOVING AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, GRADUALLY TAPERING WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE
STRONGER SUPPORT ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND
THIS DEPARTING BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
BULK OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. GIVEN THE NORTHERN ORIGIN OF THE
HIGH, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. THE MUGGINESS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE A BIT WITH DEW
POINTS LINGERING IN THE LOW 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER, DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, MOVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM, SO OPTED TO CAP POP POTENTIAL
AT SLIGHT CHANCE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL EVOLUTION TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT TO THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THERE REMAINS
A POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
GIVEN A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM LOW 80S TO NEAR 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LINGER IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES WITH
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
LATER THIS MORNING, AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY AT ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FOR KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES REACHING AT LEAST THE IFR
CATEGORY, IF NOT LOWER WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG. THEREFORE,
HAVE CONTINUED TO HIT THESE TERMINALS THE HARDEST WITH IMPACTS,
BUT HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY AS SOME MINOR CLOUDS MAY ABATE
GETTING WELL INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY. FOG WILL MIX OUT AFTER DAWN
AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FAVORED TODAY WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL FLIP THE WIND
DIRECTIONS AT KERI AND KCLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
MARINE
WESTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS CURRENTLY BRINGING 2FT WAVES CLEVELAND
EASTWARD WILL EASE TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BECOMING LESS THAN A FOOT. SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WINDS TURN SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 10KTS AHEAD OF
A MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. EXPECTING 2-3FT WAVES BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN
AROUND 10KTS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BACK BELOW
2FT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...26
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