585
FXUS61 KCLE 291130
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
730 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
4 AM UPDATE...
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAS SHOWN
QUICKLY DIMINISHING VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG DEVELOPING AND
ADVECTING OVER THE AREA. SOME STATIONS, INCLUDING AKRON, HAVE
DROPPED TO 1/16SM. AS A RESULT, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 13Z FOR COUNTIES INCLUDING MORROW AND EXTENDING
EAST TO MAHONING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TREND IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND IF ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
FURTHER NORTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER. A STABILIZING
ATMOSPHERE WITH CLEAR SKIES IS ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL
RATHER EFFICIENTLY WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S. GIVEN THE FAIRLY WET SOIL CONDITIONS, THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A DECENT AREA OF
FOG DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US30. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR VISIBILITIES TRENDS IN THE COMING HOURS FOR THE NEED OF
ANY HEADLINES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT,
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TONIGHT, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, THE RETURN OF WAA AND A
MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. IN ADDITION, AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 2000+ J/G
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
INCREASES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BEST MESOSCALE SUPPORT IS DISJOINTED WITH
THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
IN ADDITION, PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE TO NEARLY 2" AGAIN,
WHICH COUPLED WITH DEEPENING WARM CLOUD LAYERS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY
EFFICIENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL, CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. SPC AND WPC HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
THESE CONCERNS WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND IN THE
ERO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S. AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA, MOVING AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, GRADUALLY TAPERING WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE
STRONGER SUPPORT ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND
THIS DEPARTING BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
BULK OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. GIVEN THE NORTHERN ORIGIN OF THE
HIGH, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. THE MUGGINESS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE A BIT WITH DEW
POINTS LINGERING IN THE LOW 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER, DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, MOVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM, SO OPTED TO CAP POP POTENTIAL
AT SLIGHT CHANCE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL EVOLUTION TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT TO THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THERE REMAINS
A POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
GIVEN A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM LOW 80S TO NEAR 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LINGER IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A BANK OF DENSE FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
EASTERN OHIO WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT REACHING KMFD AND KCAK.
FOG SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO UNTIL DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR THESE LIFR CONDITIONS TO
FIZZLE. ELSEWHERE, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MOMENT OF SOME MVFR
VISIBILITY THIS MORNING, BUT THE WINDOW FOR ANY NEW FOG
DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT PATCH IS VERY SHORT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AIRSPACE TODAY AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL FLIP THE WIND DIRECTIONS AT KERI AND KCLE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH VERY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND BRING SOME MID-LEVEL CEILINGS TO MOST
TERMINALS. THE LATER TAF AT KCLE ALLOWS AN OPPORTUNITY TO BEGIN
MENTIONING SOME TS, AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW AND WAVES LESS THAN A FOOT TODAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND
10 KTS WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE LAKE FOR MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SHIFT WINDS
TO THE WEST AROUND 10 KTS BUT PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO 15 KTS. WAVES
WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE TO 2 FT BUT THERE
COULD BE CLOSER TO 3 FT IF SOME 15 KT WINDS CAN PERSIST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENTER FOR WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THE WEST FLOW ON
THE LAKE BUT LARGELY 10 KTS OR LESS AND WAVES UNDER 2 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE AND VARIABLE FLOW
OVER THE LAKE IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ029>033-
037-038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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