186
FXUS61 KCLE 300521
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
121 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
9:30 PM UPDATE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERNIGHT WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
6:00 PM UPDATE...
ADDED CHANCE POPS TO THE US 30 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING SINCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, BUT WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT, KEPT THE IDEA OF POPS
GRADUALLY FILLING BACK IN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THERE
HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FUNNELS WITH THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NEAR
MARION OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE VORTICITY
NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND DEW POINT POOLING/LOW LCL HEIGHTS, SO
ADDITIONAL FUNNELS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF NON-SUPERCELLULAR
LANDSPOUT ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY OF THE SHOWERS NEAR US 30 THIS
EVENING.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BECOME A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM APPROXIMATELY SE MICHIGAN TO MFD, TO JUST
SOUTH OF WOOSTER AND CAK INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, BEST SEEN IN
DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES, AND TO SOME DEGREE, WIND DIRECTIONS. THERE IS
ALSO A LAKE BREEZE EVIDENT ON RADAR THAT IS BRINGING LAKESHORE AREA
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH AXIS ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION, AHEAD OF A MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE, COUPLED WITH SOME INSTABILITY
THAT WILL INCREASE WITH HEATING ON MONDAY AND MODEST INCREASES IN
THE 0-6KM SHEAR TO AROUND 25KTS. SLATED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE TOMORROW WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASES IN THE FLOW, AND THERE
WILL BE BE POCKETS OF LOWER RH AIR IN THE COLUMN THAT COULD ASSIST
WITH SOME WIND GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECTING A MARKED INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AFTER 19Z MONDAY, CARRYING OVER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS IS WHEN THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWS WILL INCREASE TO 30-40KTS IN
THE 0-6KM LAYER LEADING TO MORE ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION,
HOWEVER, IT WILL BE FIGHTING A LITTLE MORE DRY AIR ALOFT AND STORMS
WOULD BE ELEVATED AFTER LOSING THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY, BUT
WOULD HAVE AN INCREASED LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. EXPECT TO SEE THE THUNDERSTORMS PUSH WELL INTO PA BY EARLY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO DIP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60'S INLAND FROM THE LAKE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY CONTROLS THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT THERE MAY BE
A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. THIS MAY BRING SOME THUNDER
TO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD NORTHERN OHIO LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH TIMING
BRINGING IT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IN ANY EVENT THE
REGION WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT WITH DIURNALLY DRIVES THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MID 80'S TO
LOWER 90S COMMON. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60'S. HOWEVER A FEW MID TO
UPPER 50'S POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKE FROM THE MID OHIO REGION TO
NW PA.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY. CURRENTLY, A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO
IMPACT AREAS, REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR DISTANCES. THIS WILL
BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY VALUES CLIMB
ACROSS THE AREA, SO OPTED TO HAVE A TEMPO OR PROB30 FOR IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS,
BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OPTED TO NOT DROP CONDITIONS THAT LOW.
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH EAST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST, ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY REBOUND TO VFR EVERYWHERE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KTOL WHICH MAY START TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW AND WAVES LESS THAN A FOOT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE TONIGHT AND WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. MAYBE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FROM CLEVELAND TO RIPLEY WHERE THE WINDS MAY TURN A BIT
MORE ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST OF 10-15 KNOTS. WAVES BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
TO 2 FT BUT THERE COULD BE CLOSER TO 3 FT IF SOME 15 KT WINDS CAN
PERSIST. HIGH RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS/26
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...04
MARINE...MM
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