962
FXUS61 KCLE 300626
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
226 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE WEST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WARM FRONT IS ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS ENTERING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK MOVING IN. OVERALL, SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING OUT OF
THESE RETURNS BUT NOTHING HAS MEASURED SO FAR ACROSS WEATHER
OBSERVATION STATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER,
THESE RETURNS ARE A SIGNAL OF THE BETTER MOISTURE ENTERING THE
REGION AS DEW POINTS ARE RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S, WHICH WILL HAVE
LARGER REPERCUSSIONS LATER IN THE DAY. A MORE POTENT BAND OF SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER HAS ENTERED SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
FOR THE DAY FOR MOST.
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE AND RECOVERY PERIOD, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. SOME STORMS COULD ALSO BE FORMED AS A
RESULT ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNING'S ROUND OF RAIN.
THESE WILL THEN MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH WILL THEN ENTER LATE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD GENERATE STORMS
FURTHER WEST, WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR
TODAY IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF SUMMER WITH HIGH INSTABILITY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTIVE CORES THAT
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
WIND SHEAR OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO ALLOW FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT AND WINDOW, HENCE JUST A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IN
ADDITION, THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THERE WILL BE A HIGH COVERAGE
OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND IF THE ATMOSPHERE CANNOT
RECHARGE BETWEEN ROUNDS, THERE COULD BE JUST LOTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SUB-SEVERE WIND THAT WOULD BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA. SPEAKING OF
HEAVY RAIN, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL POSE AN
ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT TODAY - IT WOULD JUST COME DOWN TO THE TYPICAL
COMBINATION OF POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN LOCATIONS SEEING MULTIPLE STORMS
TODAY. STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING EAST AT A GOOD CLIP AND THIS ISN'T A
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING SETUP, SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ISOLATED.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL END THE RAIN THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST FOLKS
SHOULD BE DONE WITH RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY, IF NOT
SOONER, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY, BUT DEW POINTS IN THE 70S
WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FORECAST APPEARS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AT THIS
TIME. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE AREA WILL BE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND NOT ADVECTING TOO
MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TO RECOVER BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL DIP SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
ALLOW FOR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FEATURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT STORM COVERAGE
OR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MODEST WILL SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. IN ADDITION,
THE BETTER JET ENERGY TO ORGANIZE STORMS WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRAVERSING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALSO PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE BACK TOWARD THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MANY
LOCATIONS. FOR SUNDAY, SOME FORM OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO BE ON THE INCREASE;
HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CAN BUILD
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM - THESE DETAILS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN 7 DAYS
OUT. SUSPECT THAT MANY AREAS WILL TRY TO EEK OUT A 90 DEGREE HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY, UNLESS EARLY IN THE DAY CONVECTION HALTS
THAT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY. CURRENTLY, A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO
IMPACT AREAS, REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR DISTANCES. THIS WILL
BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY VALUES CLIMB
ACROSS THE AREA, SO OPTED TO HAVE A TEMPO OR PROB30 FOR IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS,
BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OPTED TO NOT DROP CONDITIONS THAT LOW.
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH EAST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST, ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY REBOUND TO VFR EVERYWHERE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KTOL WHICH MAY START TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW AND WAVES LESS THAN A FOOT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE TONIGHT AND WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. MAYBE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FROM CLEVELAND TO RIPLEY WHERE THE WINDS MAY TURN A BIT
MORE ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST OF 10-15 KNOTS. WAVES BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
TO 2 FT BUT THERE COULD BE CLOSER TO 3 FT IF SOME 15 KT WINDS CAN
PERSIST. HIGH RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...04
MARINE...MM
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