003
FXUS61 KCLE 301147
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
747 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE WEST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WARM FRONT IS ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS ENTERING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK MOVING IN. OVERALL, SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING OUT OF
THESE RETURNS BUT NOTHING HAS MEASURED SO FAR ACROSS WEATHER
OBSERVATION STATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER,
THESE RETURNS ARE A SIGNAL OF THE BETTER MOISTURE ENTERING THE
REGION AS DEW POINTS ARE RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S, WHICH WILL HAVE
LARGER REPERCUSSIONS LATER IN THE DAY. A MORE POTENT BAND OF SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER HAS ENTERED SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
FOR THE DAY FOR MOST.
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE AND RECOVERY PERIOD, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. SOME STORMS COULD ALSO BE FORMED AS A
RESULT ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNING'S ROUND OF RAIN.
THESE WILL THEN MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH WILL THEN ENTER LATE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD GENERATE STORMS
FURTHER WEST, WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR
TODAY IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF SUMMER WITH HIGH INSTABILITY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTIVE CORES THAT
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
WIND SHEAR OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO ALLOW FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT AND WINDOW, HENCE JUST A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IN
ADDITION, THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THERE WILL BE A HIGH COVERAGE
OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND IF THE ATMOSPHERE CANNOT
RECHARGE BETWEEN ROUNDS, THERE COULD BE JUST LOTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SUB-SEVERE WIND THAT WOULD BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA. SPEAKING OF
HEAVY RAIN, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL POSE AN
ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT TODAY - IT WOULD JUST COME DOWN TO THE TYPICAL
COMBINATION OF POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN LOCATIONS SEEING MULTIPLE STORMS
TODAY. STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING EAST AT A GOOD CLIP AND THIS ISN'T A
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING SETUP, SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ISOLATED.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL END THE RAIN THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST FOLKS
SHOULD BE DONE WITH RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY, IF NOT
SOONER, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY, BUT DEW POINTS IN THE 70S
WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FORECAST APPEARS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AT THIS
TIME. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE AREA WILL BE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND NOT ADVECTING TOO
MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TO RECOVER BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL DIP SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
ALLOW FOR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FEATURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT STORM COVERAGE
OR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MODEST WILL SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. IN ADDITION,
THE BETTER JET ENERGY TO ORGANIZE STORMS WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRAVERSING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALSO PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE BACK TOWARD THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MANY
LOCATIONS. FOR SUNDAY, SOME FORM OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO BE ON THE INCREASE;
HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CAN BUILD
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM - THESE DETAILS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN 7 DAYS
OUT. SUSPECT THAT MANY AREAS WILL TRY TO EEK OUT A 90 DEGREE HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY, UNLESS EARLY IN THE DAY CONVECTION HALTS
THAT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO TRICKLE NORTH INTO THE
AREA. TERMINALS IMPACTED BY STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR DISTANCES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD, LIKELY IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TODAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PIN POINTING THE TIMING FOR THESE
SCATTERED STORMS AT GIVEN TERMINALS, SO OPTED TO HANDLE THE
DIMINISHED POTENTIAL WITH TEMPOS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TERMINALS
TO REACH IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON (GENERALLY
18-00Z) AS PEAK INSTABILITY WILL AID IN DEVELOPING THE STRONGEST
STORMS OF THE DAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO 30+ KNOTS AT TERMINALS
IMPACTED WITH THE STORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LIKELY.
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH EAST, GRADUALLY ALLOWING
FOR SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST.
OVERALL THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE
GIVEN THE NON-DIURNALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE BIG TAKEAWAY
TODAY IS THAT PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHEN EXACTLY THOSE WILL OCCUR.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR
WESTERN TERMINALS THAT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING, ALLOWING
FOR WINDS TO SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DURING THE SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY, WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE UP TO 15 KNOTS.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH ONSHORE FLOW
RESULTING IN WAVES BUILDING TO 1-3 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKESHORES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ONCE
AGAIN TO 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY, ONCE AGAIN SHIFTING WINDS TO
HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT. NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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