494
FXUS61 KCLE 162357
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
757 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH ON
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAIN FROM
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
APPEARS TO BE DECREASING, WITH ANY FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
THROUGH THIS EVENING LIKELY ONLY CONFINED TO URBAN AREAS,
DRIVEN BY RATE-DRIVEN HEAVY RAIN. RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH PWATS RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 2.20
INCHES. ELSEWHERE, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND WEAK FLOW MAY LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION LEADING TO A LOWER FLOODING RISK, ALBEIT WITH
SEASONABLY-HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FOLLOWING SUNSET AS THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EARLIER
CONVECTION MOVES EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA. LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, EXTENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES, THOUGH FOR THE MOST PART, THIS
APPEARS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALOFT, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A RIDGE DEVELOPS AND BUILDS
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH
PWATS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF A
STATIONARY FRONT. WPC CURRENTLY HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS CURRENTLY
NO SPC OUTLOOK AT THIS POINT FOR SATURDAY, THOUGH COULD
CERTAINLY SEE FUTURE INCLUSION IF MODEL TRENDS PERSIST. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST
ITERATIONS.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BRING A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE SUMMER
HEAT BEHIND THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO PERHAPS UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF THE
HEAT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
DEPICT LOW CHANCES (10 TO 30%) FOR HEAT INDICES TO EXCEED 100
DEGREES, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND EXPANDS
NORTHWARDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPING HEAT POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST
ITERATIONS.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, LEADING TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID-80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS APPROACHING THE LOW TO
MID-70S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR WILL GRADUALLY WANE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LONGER PERIODS OF VFR TO
RETURN THE REST OF THE EVENING, HOWEVER, THE FRESH RAINFALL AND
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LOW STRATUS
TONIGHT, SO INCREASED COVERAGE OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE STRATUS IS
MEDIUM. WATCHING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO INDIANA
AT THE TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS LINE WILL FALL APART
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE I-75 CORRIDOR, BUT EXPECT SOME
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING, SO ADDED VCSH. DRIER AIR AND VFR WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
S TO SW WINDS OF 5-15 KNOTS THE REST OF THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT WILL VEER TO W LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AND THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE NON-VFR CHANCES RETURN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
OPTED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE, AS WEST WINDS SHARPLY INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE
LAKE. WINDS OF 20-25 KTS EXPECTED THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE WINDOW
IS RATHER BRIEF FOR THE WESTERN BASIN. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE BEHIND THE LOW, WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHERLY IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE, WITH WAVES REACHING SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES
NEAR THE LAKE, WITH SOME INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10-15
KT RANGE. THIS WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ010>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...03
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