267
FXUS61 KCLE 171139
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
739 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND LINGER
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
TRACKING EAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN OF LAKE ERIE WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER TODAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE DOWN TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT
AND STALL OUT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN PSUEDO ZONAL OR A SLIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT ONCE AGAIN OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT AND
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR POPS SATURDAY EVENING. THE STALLED
FRONT MAY WAFFLE BACK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OHIO LATER ON
SUNDAY WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND CHANCE
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN OHIO BY MONDAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A HOTTER FORECAST BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE FURTHER INTO NORTHERN OHIO.
KTOL, KFDY, AND MORE RECENTLY, KMFD HAVE STARTED TO SEEN MVFR
CEILINGS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH KCLE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND WILL
CONTINUE EAST THROUGH MID- MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE MVFR CEILINGS IS LOW, AND HAVE OPTED TO OMIT IT
FROM KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG. THERE IS AN INFLUX OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH THE PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURED YESTERDAY
WILL HELP WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS, THOUGH THERE IS MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THE CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND. OUTSIDE
OF CEILINGS, THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY OUTSIDE OF A
FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT KCLE AND KERI COME EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, THERE
COULD BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE DRY AIR MOVING IN THE MID LEVELS.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE BY THIS MORNING WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND VEER TO BE MORE WESTERLY. EXPECTING
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20
KNOTS. KERI COULD SEE HIGHER WINDS DURING THE DAY AS THEY VEER
AROUND DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST
LATE THURSDAY, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE NON-VFR CHANCES RETURN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND NON-VFR CONDITIONS STARTING ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LAKE
WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 5-9 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS OF THE OPEN WATERS. FOR THE NEAR SHORE ZONES,
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 5-8
FEET BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-6 FEET. AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT MOVE EASTWARD, WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LAKE INTO EARLY FRIDAY. STARTING FRIDAY,
WINDS WILL VEER TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10
KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE
THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH BEFORE SHIFTING TO BE OUT OF THE
EAST ON MONDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ010>012-
089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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