614
FXUS61 KCLE 171739
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
139 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND LINGER
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
TRACKING EAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN OF LAKE ERIE WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER TODAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE DOWN TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT
AND STALL OUT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN PSUEDO ZONAL OR A SLIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT ONCE AGAIN OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT AND
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR POPS SATURDAY EVENING. THE STALLED
FRONT MAY WAFFLE BACK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OHIO LATER ON
SUNDAY WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND CHANCE
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN OHIO BY MONDAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A HOTTER FORECAST BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO WITH POCKETS OF MVFR PERSISTING ACROSS LAKESHORE
TAF SITES. HAVE ALL TAF SITES LIFTING TO VFR BY TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH DAYBREAK. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING PUSHING OFF LAKE ERIE SO CONTINUED THE
VCSH AT KCLE AND KERI.
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 12-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS, 30+ KNOTS AT TIMES AT KERI, CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 8 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNING THIS WEEKEND IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LAKE
WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 5-9 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS OF THE OPEN WATERS. FOR THE NEAR SHORE ZONES,
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-6 FEET. AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT MOVE EASTWARD, WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE LAKE INTO EARLY FRIDAY. STARTING FRIDAY, WINDS WILL
VEER TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KNOTS. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE THEREAFTER THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTH BEFORE SHIFTING TO BE OUT OF THE EAST ON MONDAY AT AROUND
10 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ010>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...13
MARINE...23
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