606
FXUS61 KCLE 172354
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
754 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
SHIFT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
LAKE ENHANCED BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO ERIE COUNTY AND
BROUGHT POPS IN A LITTLE SOONER FOR TONIGHT. THIS EARLY BAND MAY
BE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED THAN SHOWERS WE SEE LATER TONIGHT
WITH THE FLOW VEERING TO NORTHERLY. NEVERTHELESS, A FEW (MOSTLY
LIGHT) SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT REGION.
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS A
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS LAKE ERIE. NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP-
FLOP ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA (GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30), THOUGH BASED ON CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS, THE PATTERN APPEARS TO FAVOR A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY IMPACTING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA (SAME VICINITY SOUTH OF THE US-30
CORRIDOR) LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN QUIET AND MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALOFT, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A RIDGE DEVELOPS AND BUILDS
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH PWATS
ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF A
STATIONARY FRONT. WPC CURRENTLY HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS CURRENTLY
NO SPC OUTLOOK AT THIS POINT FOR SATURDAY, THOUGH COULD
CERTAINLY SEE FUTURE INCLUSION IF MODEL TRENDS PERSIST WITH
MLCAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG AND NORTHWEST BULK SHEAR OF NEAR 30
KNOTS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST ITERATIONS.
OTHERWISE, THIS SYSTEM WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT BY SUNDAY.
AT THIS POINT, ODDS FAVOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-30 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF THE
HEAT BY MID-WEEK. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES DEPICT LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 40/50%) FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH OR EXCEED
100 DEGREES BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND EXPANDS NORTHWARDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING HEAT POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL FORECAST ITERATIONS. GIVEN OUR AREA BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY AND NORTHWEST BULK SHEAR
INCREASE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS IS NEAR AND SOON TO PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AIRPORT IN ERIE PA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY BE IN THE VICINITY OF ERI THROUGH ABOUT 04Z WITH A LESSER
CHANCE OF A SHOWER NEAR CLE BETWEEN 04-07Z. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY ALONG AND BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS LAKE
ERIE LATE THIS EVENING. MVFR WILL BE SLOWER TO REACH THE EASTERN
TERMINALS BUT MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS TOL/FDY EARLY FRIDAY.
LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AT ERI AND POSSIBLY CLE/YNG WHILE A
MID LEVEL DECK OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN BE EASTERLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT AT ERI
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNING THIS WEEKEND IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT. WESTERLY
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WILL TURN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS OF
3-5 FEET AND A MODERATE SWIM RISK ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, ALLOWING FOR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE
WEEKEND. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FLIPPING
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAINING 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ010>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...10/KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...10
MARINE...13
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