938
FXUS61 KCLE 180605
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
SHIFT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
00Z HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS WITH COVERAGE OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT NEAR THE 305K
LAYER. THIS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 09-15Z BEFORE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS A
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS LAKE ERIE. NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP-
FLOP ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA (GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30), THOUGH BASED ON CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS, THE PATTERN APPEARS TO FAVOR A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY IMPACTING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA (SAME VICINITY SOUTH OF THE US-30
CORRIDOR) LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN QUIET AND MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALOFT, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A RIDGE DEVELOPS AND BUILDS
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH PWATS
ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF A
STATIONARY FRONT. WPC CURRENTLY HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS CURRENTLY
NO SPC OUTLOOK AT THIS POINT FOR SATURDAY, THOUGH COULD
CERTAINLY SEE FUTURE INCLUSION IF MODEL TRENDS PERSIST WITH
MLCAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG AND NORTHWEST BULK SHEAR OF NEAR 30
KNOTS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST ITERATIONS.
OTHERWISE, THIS SYSTEM WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT BY SUNDAY.
AT THIS POINT, ODDS FAVOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-30 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF THE
HEAT BY MID-WEEK. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES DEPICT LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 40/50%) FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH OR EXCEED
100 DEGREES BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND EXPANDS NORTHWARDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING HEAT POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL FORECAST ITERATIONS. GIVEN OUR AREA BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY AND NORTHWEST BULK SHEAR
INCREASE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR
REGION THROUGH 06Z/SAT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL AND
ESPECIALLY UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PRECEDE THE AXES OF THE
DISTURBANCES. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR
REGION AS ITS PARENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL NY. FARTHER SOUTH,
A FRONT SHOULD WAVER SLIGHTLY IN A NORTH-SOUTH MANNER NEAR THE
OH RIVER THROUGH 06Z/SAT AS VERY WEAK LOWS MOVE GENERALLY E'WARD
ALONG THE FRONT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW PRIMARILY FAIR
WEATHER AND VFR VISIBILITY TO AFFECT NORTHERN OH AND NW PA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A
ROUGHLY KFDY TO KCAK TO KBTP LINE IN/NEAR OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCES ALOFT INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
FRONT.
OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS AND VARY BETWEEN N'ERLY AND E'ERLY THROUGH 00Z/SAT.
THEREAFTER, OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 5
KNOTS AND MUCH MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH 06Z/SAT. A
SUFFICIENTLY COLD/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS OVER/DOWNWIND OF ~78F
LAKE ERIE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULI AND
ASSOCIATED CEILINGS NEAR 1.5KFT TO 3.5KFT AGL TO IMPACT ALL TAF
SITES AT TIMES THROUGH ~14Z/FRI AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS
FROM NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY OVER/DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. AFTER
~14Z/FRI, DAYTIME HEATING AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD CUMULI AND ASSOCIATED
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION. NOCTURNAL COOLING-
RELATED STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
THE CUMULI TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 22Z/FRI AND ~00Z/SAT.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
NON-VFR ARE EXPECTED THIS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT. WESTERLY
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WILL TURN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS OF
3-5 FEET AND A MODERATE SWIM RISK ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, ALLOWING FOR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE
WEEKEND. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FLIPPING
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAINING 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...10/KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...13
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