704
FXUS61 KCLE 180646
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
246 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND SHIFT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WE ARE STARTING OFF THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THERE IS
A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS IS ADVECTING IN ON
NORTHERLY BREEZES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER 60S NEAR THE LAKESHORE. OVERALL THE WEATHER WILL BE
QUIET TODAY. CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT, THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 TODAY NEAR CENTRAL
OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING POTENTIALLY MORE
UNSETTLED AND STORMY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE STALLED OUT FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY. MLCAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 1500 J/KG IF NOT A LITTLE
MORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 35
KNOTS. PW VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THE SETUP IS
INDICATING THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT FOLLOWED BY MARGINAL LARGE
HAIL. THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. THE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE BACK SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. BEFORE IT CLEARS THROUGH OUR CENTRAL OHIO
COUNTIES SUNDAY, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. OUR LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. WE WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION KINDA
WAFFLING AROUND THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER AND A RISK FOR SOME CONVECTION FROM
DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OR "RIDGE RIDERS"
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S. THE HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR
REGION THROUGH 06Z/SAT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL AND
ESPECIALLY UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PRECEDE THE AXES OF THE
DISTURBANCES. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR
REGION AS ITS PARENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL NY. FARTHER SOUTH,
A FRONT SHOULD WAVER SLIGHTLY IN A NORTH-SOUTH MANNER NEAR THE
OH RIVER THROUGH 06Z/SAT AS VERY WEAK LOWS MOVE GENERALLY E'WARD
ALONG THE FRONT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW PRIMARILY FAIR
WEATHER AND VFR VISIBILITY TO AFFECT NORTHERN OH AND NW PA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A
ROUGHLY KFDY TO KCAK TO KBTP LINE IN/NEAR OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCES ALOFT INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
FRONT.
OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS AND VARY BETWEEN N'ERLY AND E'ERLY THROUGH 00Z/SAT.
THEREAFTER, OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 5
KNOTS AND MUCH MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH 06Z/SAT. A
SUFFICIENTLY COLD/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS OVER/DOWNWIND OF ~78F
LAKE ERIE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULI AND
ASSOCIATED CEILINGS NEAR 1.5KFT TO 3.5KFT AGL TO IMPACT ALL TAF
SITES AT TIMES THROUGH ~14Z/FRI AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS
FROM NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY OVER/DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. AFTER
~14Z/FRI, DAYTIME HEATING AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD CUMULI AND ASSOCIATED
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION. NOCTURNAL COOLING-
RELATED STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
THE CUMULI TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 22Z/FRI AND ~00Z/SAT.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
NON-VFR ARE EXPECTED THIS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT. WESTERLY
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WILL TURN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS OF
3-5 FEET AND A MODERATE SWIM RISK ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, ALLOWING FOR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE
WEEKEND. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FLIPPING
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAINING 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
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