746
FXUS61 KCLE 181811
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
211 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND SHIFT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A STEADY AREA OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE US
30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH BROADER SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
CATEGORICAL AND A BROAD AREA OF LIKELY POPS WITH NOTABLE RAIN
CHANCE INCREASES FOR AKRON, CANTON, AND YOUNGSTOWN. WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL TAPER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS
WELL AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW 80 DEGREES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE ARE STARTING OFF THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THERE IS
A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS IS ADVECTING IN ON
NORTHERLY BREEZES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER 60S NEAR THE LAKESHORE. OVERALL THE WEATHER WILL BE
QUIET TODAY. CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT, THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 TODAY NEAR CENTRAL
OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING POTENTIALLY MORE
UNSETTLED AND STORMY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE STALLED OUT FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY. MLCAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 1500 J/KG IF NOT A LITTLE
MORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 35
KNOTS. PW VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THE SETUP IS
INDICATING THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT FOLLOWED BY MARGINAL LARGE
HAIL. THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. THE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE BACK SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. BEFORE IT CLEARS THROUGH OUR CENTRAL OHIO
COUNTIES SUNDAY, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. OUR LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. WE WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION KINDA
WAFFLING AROUND THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER AND A RISK FOR SOME CONVECTION FROM
DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OR "RIDGE RIDERS"
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S. THE HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN AND NON-VFR CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OHIO. RAIN WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT MVFR AND SOME IFR
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BELIEVE THAT
MOST OF THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL FADE THIS EVENING WITH DRIER AIR
COMING FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FROM TODAY'S RAINFALL AND BELIEVE THAT THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF CLOUDS AND DECREASING FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR THIS TO MANIFEST INTO WIDESPREAD FOG. THEREFORE, WAS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH IFR AND LIFR AT KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG AND LOW
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AT KTOL AND KFDY INDICATE FOR SOME
NON-VFR VISIBILITY TO DEVELOP EVEN INTO DRIER NORTHWEST OHIO
TONIGHT AS WELL. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE AT KCLE AND KERI AND
SHOULD HELP ABATE FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT THESE TERMINALS. THESE
SITES ALSO LARGELY REMAINED DRY TODAY.
THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING OVER THE
REGION. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE AIRSPACE ON SATURDAY AND ENTER THE AREA; HOWEVER,
MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE ENTERING AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOW NON-VFR CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
MARINE
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS TUESDAY. A RIDGE AFFECTS LAKE ERIE
TODAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXIT E'WARD TONIGHT AS THE
PARENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO EASTERN NY. IN ADDITION, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
WEAK LOW MOVES GENERALLY E'WARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
TO CENTRAL LOWER MI. ACCORDINGLY, PRIMARILY NE'ERLY WINDS VEER
TO SW'ERLY WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
E'WARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND CAUSES SW'ERLY
WINDS TO VEER TO NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
ANOTHER RIDGE SHOULD AFFECT LAKE ERIE THIS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND CAUSE WINDS TO VEER GRADUALLY TO E'ERLY TO SE'ERLY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77/SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...JASZKA
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