677
FXUS61 KCLE 190808
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
408 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY,
USHERING IN ADDITIONAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THE WEATHER IS
QUIET THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MODERATE INSTABLILTY WILL DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS. MODEST TO MODERATE DCAPE WILL DEVELOP OF 700-1000 J/KG.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY WEAK. THESE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST WITH ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WE WILL BE WATCHING TO OUR WEST- NORTHWEST
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A MCS OR A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA TRACKING
EASTWARD. THE LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS OUR NORTHWESTERN
OHIO COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND THE REST OF OUR NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE APPROXIMATE TIMING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL BE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 12 AM. THE CONVECTION WILL
LOSE ORGANIZATION AND BECOME LESS SEVERE AS IT MOVES FURTHER
EASTWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWPA AREAS TONIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT FROM SATURDAY WILL DROP BACK THROUGH AS A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS CLOSER TO CENTRAL OHIO ON SUNDAY, SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
30. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPPI
VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
IN PLACE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGIONS WILL BE IN THE "RING OF FIRE" OR
THE NORTHERN EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WE WILL SEE A BIG
JUMP IN TEMPERATURES, HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER/MIDDLE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY POSSIBLY CLIMB TO NEAR
100 TO 104 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE "RIDGE RIDERS" OR LITTLE DISTURBANCES
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK FOR
POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR REGION
THROUGH 06Z/SUN. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID-LEVEL AND ESPECIALLY
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PRECEDE THE AXES OF THESE
DISTURBANCES. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXIT
GENERALLY E'WARD AS A WEAK LOW MOVES GENERALLY E'WARD FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO CENTRAL LOWER MI THROUGH 06Z/SUN. THE
EXITING RIDGE AND LOW TRACK WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SWEEP
NE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN ~13Z/SAT AND ~16Z/SAT.
OUR REGIONAL WINDS TREND CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. THESE WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS COMBINED WITH
POCKETS OF CLEAR SKY AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT
RAINFALL SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF RADIATION MIST AND FOG TO IMPACT
NORTHERN OH BETWEEN ~08Z/SAT AND ~12Z/SAT. THIS INCLUDES KTOL,
KFDY, KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE MIST/FOG. LINGERING STRATOCUMULI AND ASSOCIATED MVFR
CEILINGS IN INTERIOR NORTHERN OH SHOULD EXIT GENERALLY E'WARD BY
~12Z/SAT. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND
5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR AREA THROUGH 06Z/SUN.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING IN NORTHERN OH AND
NW PA. HOWEVER, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES GENERALLY
E'WARD, MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LOW'S TRAILING COLD
FRONT UPSTREAM OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST
GENERALLY E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN ~21Z/SAT THROUGH
06Z/SUN. THESE STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE BRIEF/ERRATIC SURFACE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 50 KNOTS. BEHIND THE CLUSTERS OR LINE OF
CONVECTION, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z/SUN AS THE COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY. BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND MVFR TO LIFR
SHOULD ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. NOTE: NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL SHOULD
PERMIT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
MVFR CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LONGITUDE OF KCAK, BETWEEN
~03Z/SUN AND 06Z/SUN.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL AND PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT. FAIR
WEATHER AND VFR LIKELY THIS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME SW'ERLY
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE ERIE AS A WARM FRONT SWEEPS
NE'WARD ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ABOUT 8 AM EDT AND 12 PM TODAY.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS PERSIST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS A LOW MOVES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER E'WARD
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS
VEER TO NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT
OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN
SHORE OF THE CENTRAL BASIN, WHERE FETCH WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND
WAVES REFLECTING OFF THE SHORE MAY INTERACT CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH
WAVES APPROACHING THE SHORE.
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER GRADUALLY TO E'ERLY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND STRENGTHENS GRADUALLY.
NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY WINDS MAY FLIRT WITH 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE WAVES SHOULD PRIMARILY
REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS, OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THOSE STRONGER WINDS. E'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD VEER
GRADUALLY TO S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE EXITS GENERALLY E'WARD AND A WARM FRONT MOVES
N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
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