282
FXUS61 KCLE 191748
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY,
USHERING IN ADDITIONAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THE WEATHER IS
QUIET THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MODERATE INSTABLILTY WILL DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS. MODEST TO MODERATE DCAPE WILL DEVELOP OF 700-1000 J/KG.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY WEAK. THESE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST WITH ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WE WILL BE WATCHING TO OUR WEST- NORTHWEST
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A MCS OR A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA TRACKING
EASTWARD. THE LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS OUR NORTHWESTERN
OHIO COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND THE REST OF OUR NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE APPROXIMATE TIMING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL BE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 12 AM. THE CONVECTION WILL
LOSE ORGANIZATION AND BECOME LESS SEVERE AS IT MOVES FURTHER
EASTWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWPA AREAS TONIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT FROM SATURDAY WILL DROP BACK THROUGH AS A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS CLOSER TO CENTRAL OHIO ON SUNDAY, SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
30. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPPI
VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
IN PLACE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGIONS WILL BE IN THE "RING OF FIRE" OR
THE NORTHERN EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WE WILL SEE A BIG
JUMP IN TEMPERATURES, HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER/MIDDLE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY POSSIBLY CLIMB TO NEAR
100 TO 104 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE "RIDGE RIDERS" OR LITTLE DISTURBANCES
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK FOR
POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST ACROSS INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING HAS REMAINED
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST ITERATIONS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE I-75 CORRIDOR AROUND 22Z/SAT THIS
EVENING AND PUSHING EAST TOWARDS KCLE-KMFD AROUND 00Z/SUN AND
KERI 03Z/SUN. STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 KNOTS. KEPT TEMPO TSRA AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT BEST TIMING FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND IMPACTS TO TERMINALS. BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT, WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVERHEAD THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS. CEILINGS MAY
GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR/VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FLIP NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. FAIR WEATHER AND VFR
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME SW'ERLY
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE ERIE AS A WARM FRONT SWEEPS
NE'WARD ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ABOUT 8 AM EDT AND 12 PM TODAY.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS PERSIST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS A LOW MOVES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER E'WARD
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS
VEER TO NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT
OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN
SHORE OF THE CENTRAL BASIN, WHERE FETCH WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND
WAVES REFLECTING OFF THE SHORE MAY INTERACT CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH
WAVES APPROACHING THE SHORE.
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER GRADUALLY TO E'ERLY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND STRENGTHENS GRADUALLY.
NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY WINDS MAY FLIRT WITH 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE WAVES SHOULD PRIMARILY
REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS, OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THOSE STRONGER WINDS. E'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD VEER
GRADUALLY TO S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE EXITS GENERALLY E'WARD AND A WARM FRONT MOVES
N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...13
MARINE...JASZKA
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