022
FXUS61 KCLE 191937
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
337 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING AND CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE AREA HAS LANDED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE ACHIEVING 80 DEGREES WITH
DEW POINTS INCHING HIGHER INTO THE 60S. THE FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ACROSS INDIANA AND PUSHING EASTWARD.
OVERALL, THE COMPLEX IS STRUGGLING TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH A
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG, AS 70S DEW POINTS
ADVECT NORTHWARD. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POPPING UP AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX AND STRUGGLING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED BY THE MAIN LINE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR INDIANAPOLIS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD, IF
THEY CAN INTENSIFY AND ORGANIZE A BIT TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
WIND THREAT. REGARDLESS, THESE STORMS WILL BRING LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD HAVE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IMPACTS, DEPENDING ON THE FINAL ORIENTATION OF THE LINE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL, THE TIMING FOR THIS ROUND WILL BE
ROUGHLY 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATER TONIGHT, THE MAIN FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND SPARK SOME MORE RAIN ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER AND
NEAR LAKE ERIE, WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE MAY REMAIN MORE
DESTABILIZED OVER THE WARM LAKE. THIS WILL FUNNEL INTO NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND HAVE
LIKELY POPS TO REFLECT THIS.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
INFILTRATE THE AREA. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR NEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE IN THE US 30 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH AND COULD BRING
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS THAT WILL SATURATE LATER THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRY OUT THE AREA, AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE QUIET FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INFLUENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND DRY
WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL START A TOUCH BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND SUNDAY'S COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACHING RIDGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE THEME FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE BACK TO HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS, AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO 90S. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO INCREASE BACK INTO
THE 70S AND RESULTANT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S, IF NOT REACHING 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THE MAIN
QUESTION ABOUT THE HEAT WILL BE HOW STRONG WILL THE RIDGE BE
OVER THE REGION AND IF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FORM AND
IMPACT THE AREA. A STRONGER RIDGE WOULD KEEP MOST CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE AT HEAT-
RELATED HEADLINES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKER RIDGE
MAY ALLOW FOR MORE STORM CHANCES, WHICH WOULD WIPE OUT SOME OF
THE HEAT RISK, BUT BE A POSSIBLE CONCERN FOR STRONG STORM-
RELATED HAZARDS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAKDOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND MUTE TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE AREA WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION
FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND, AS
THE RIDGE WILL BE UNABLE TO FULLY RESURGE NORTHWARD.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST ACROSS INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING HAS REMAINED
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST ITERATIONS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE I-75 CORRIDOR AROUND 22Z/SAT THIS
EVENING AND PUSHING EAST TOWARDS KCLE-KMFD AROUND 00Z/SUN AND
KERI 03Z/SUN. STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS. KEPT TEMPO
TSRA AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT BEST TIMING
FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND IMPACTS TO TERMINALS. BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT, WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVERHEAD THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS. CEILINGS MAY
GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR/VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FLIP NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. FAIR WEATHER AND VFR
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 12-18
KNOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FLIP NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. CONTINUED ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 2-4 FEET SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN. WITH THAT, A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN
PLACE LAKE COUNTY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WINDS
RETURN SOUTHERLY BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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