266
FXUS61 KCLE 200031
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
831 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING AND CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
8:15 PM UPDATE...
A WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM WAS MAINTAINED UPSTREAM ALL AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY
A 20+ KNOT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET THAT FED STRONG
WARM/MOIST/THETA E ADVECTION INTO A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STILL ARCS FROM ROUGHLY SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SW OHIO.
AN MCV SPIRALING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED
THE SYSTEM TO PROPAGATE WELL AHEAD OF THE BEST SUPPORT AND
INSTABILITY, BUT IT IS FINALLY WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
DRIER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO. THIS MCS
HELD THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SW TODAY, SO SEVERE
WEATHER IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. WE ARE WATCHING A FEW NEW CELLS
STARTING TO GENERATE ON THE SW EDGE OF THE SYSTEM NEAR MARION,
MOUNT VERNON, AND MANSFIELD WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS TRYING TO
FINALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, SO THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ADJUSTED THE CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT TO BETTER TIME THE MOVEMENT
OF THIS REMNANT SYSTEM. ONCE THE MCS DEPARTS, THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING, AND NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE AREA HAS LANDED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE ACHIEVING 80 DEGREES WITH
DEW POINTS INCHING HIGHER INTO THE 60S. THE FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ACROSS INDIANA AND PUSHING EASTWARD.
OVERALL, THE COMPLEX IS STRUGGLING TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH A
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG, AS 70S DEW POINTS
ADVECT NORTHWARD. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POPPING UP AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX AND STRUGGLING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED BY THE MAIN LINE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR INDIANAPOLIS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD, IF
THEY CAN INTENSIFY AND ORGANIZE A BIT TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
WIND THREAT. REGARDLESS, THESE STORMS WILL BRING LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD HAVE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IMPACTS, DEPENDING ON THE FINAL ORIENTATION OF THE LINE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL, THE TIMING FOR THIS ROUND WILL BE
ROUGHLY 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATER TONIGHT, THE MAIN FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND SPARK SOME MORE RAIN ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER AND
NEAR LAKE ERIE, WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE MAY REMAIN MORE
DESTABILIZED OVER THE WARM LAKE. THIS WILL FUNNEL INTO NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND HAVE
LIKELY POPS TO REFLECT THIS.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
INFILTRATE THE AREA. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR NEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE IN THE US 30 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH AND COULD BRING
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS THAT WILL SATURATE LATER THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRY OUT THE AREA, AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE QUIET FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INFLUENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND DRY
WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL START A TOUCH BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND SUNDAY'S COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACHING RIDGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE THEME FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE BACK TO HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS, AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO 90S. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO INCREASE BACK INTO
THE 70S AND RESULTANT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S, IF NOT REACHING 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THE MAIN
QUESTION ABOUT THE HEAT WILL BE HOW STRONG WILL THE RIDGE BE
OVER THE REGION AND IF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FORM AND
IMPACT THE AREA. A STRONGER RIDGE WOULD KEEP MOST CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE AT HEAT-
RELATED HEADLINES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKER RIDGE
MAY ALLOW FOR MORE STORM CHANCES, WHICH WOULD WIPE OUT SOME OF
THE HEAT RISK, BUT BE A POSSIBLE CONCERN FOR STRONG STORM-
RELATED HAZARDS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAKDOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND MUTE TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE AREA WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION
FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND, AS
THE RIDGE WILL BE UNABLE TO FULLY RESURGE NORTHWARD.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COMPLEX OF WEAKENING SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LIGHTNING
HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING, SO PULLED BACK ON THUNDER EXCEPT
FOR KTOL, KFDY, AND KMFD WHERE BRIEFLY HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH
THUNDER AND LIGHTNING REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY STAY VFR IN THIS RAIN, BUT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO DROP
TO MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES.
A LULL IS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS FILL BACK IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COVERAGE
IN THIS PERIOD IS LOWER CONFIDENCE, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A MORE ORGANIZED BATCH
OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON. KEPT MOST PRECIP AS VCSH LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME PREVAILING AT KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG.
WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION, WITH SOME IFR PERIODS TOO. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH.
A LAKE BREEZE THAT PUSHED THROUGH KCLE AND KERI WILL SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO S AND SW BY 02Z, OTHERWISE, LIGHT S TO SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE TONIGHT, TURNING W LATE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY NW SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. FAIR WEATHER AND VFR
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 12-18
KNOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FLIP NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. CONTINUED ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 2-4 FEET SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN. WITH THAT, A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN
PLACE LAKE COUNTY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WINDS
RETURN SOUTHERLY BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS/SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...13
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