473
FXUS61 KCLE 200747
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK AND BRING A POTENTIAL HEATWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE SOME VERY NICE WEATHER
AND A BREAK FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
US SOME COMFORTABLE WEATHER TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. WE ARE STARTING OFF THIS MORNING RELATIVELY QUIET WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
OUT OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING BUT THE REST OF THE AREA IS
RAINFREE AS OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
AS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THAT COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY. THE
APPROXIMATE TIME FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR THE LAKESHORE WILL
BE LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OHIO BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. WE HAVE KEPT POPS THIS MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY 20 TO 40 PERCENT.
WE WILL BE WATCHING A DISTURBANCE NEAR IOWA THIS MORNING THAT
IS TRACKING EASTWARD AND MAY INTERACT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
INTO CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST FORECAST TRAJECTORY
SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS SOUTHWEST OF OUR
LOCAL CWA, MAINLY TOWARDS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN OHIO LATER
TODAY. BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY CLIP PARTS OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM NEAR MARION TO MOUNT VERNON THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL MOVE TOWARDS
SOUTHERN OHIO LATER TODAY. WITH THAT SAID, SPC HAS A DAY 1
OUTLOOK MARGINAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK JUST CLIPPING A FEW
COUNTIES LIKE MARION, MORROW, KNOX, AND HOLMES. IF ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.
BUT AGAIN, THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THE STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
A REFRESHING AIRMASS FROM CANADA WILL START TO MOVE IN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. YOU CAN GIVE THE AIR CONDITIONING A
BREAK TONIGHT AND OPEN UP THE WINDOWS FOR SOME FRESH AIR. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
BRINGING A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND 5 TO 12 MPH. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL MAKE IT MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY NICE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S AREAWIDE, AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SPECTACULAR LOOKING DAY EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OR "SUMMERTIME RIDGE" OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING
WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A POTENTIAL
HEATWAVE TO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY STARTING TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A HOT AND VERY HUMID
AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY SITUATED OVER OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE
TO VERY TROPICAL LIKE LEVELS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HOTTER TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL MAKE
POTENTIAL HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 106 ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY'S WEATHER WILL BRING POTENTIAL DANGEROUS HEAT
CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN A LITTLE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC BUT STILL INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER PATTERN WITH
HOT AND STEAMY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100 POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COMPLEX OF WEAKENING SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LIGHTNING
HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING, SO PULLED BACK ON THUNDER EXCEPT
FOR KTOL, KFDY, AND KMFD WHERE BRIEFLY HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH
THUNDER AND LIGHTNING REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY STAY VFR IN THIS RAIN, BUT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO DROP
TO MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES.
A LULL IS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS FILL BACK IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COVERAGE
IN THIS PERIOD IS LOWER CONFIDENCE, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A MORE ORGANIZED BATCH
OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON. KEPT MOST PRECIP AS VCSH LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME PREVAILING AT KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG.
WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION, WITH SOME IFR PERIODS TOO. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH.
A LAKE BREEZE THAT PUSHED THROUGH KCLE AND KERI WILL SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO S AND SW BY 02Z, OTHERWISE, LIGHT S TO SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE TONIGHT, TURNING W LATE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY NW SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. FAIR WEATHER AND VFR
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 12-18
KNOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FLIP NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. CONTINUED ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 2-4 FEET SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN. WITH THAT, A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN
PLACE LAKE COUNTY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WINDS
RETURN SOUTHERLY BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
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