042
FXUS61 KCLE 201107
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
707 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK AND BRING A POTENTIAL HEATWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE SOME VERY NICE WEATHER
AND A BREAK FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
US SOME COMFORTABLE WEATHER TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. WE ARE STARTING OFF THIS MORNING RELATIVELY QUIET WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
OUT OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING BUT THE REST OF THE AREA IS
RAINFREE AS OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
AS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THAT COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY. THE
APPROXIMATE TIME FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR THE LAKESHORE WILL
BE LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OHIO BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. WE HAVE KEPT POPS THIS MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY 20 TO 40 PERCENT.
WE WILL BE WATCHING A DISTURBANCE NEAR IOWA THIS MORNING THAT
IS TRACKING EASTWARD AND MAY INTERACT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
INTO CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST FORECAST TRAJECTORY
SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS SOUTHWEST OF OUR
LOCAL CWA, MAINLY TOWARDS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN OHIO LATER
TODAY. BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY CLIP PARTS OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM NEAR MARION TO MOUNT VERNON THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL MOVE TOWARDS
SOUTHERN OHIO LATER TODAY. WITH THAT SAID, SPC HAS A DAY 1
OUTLOOK MARGINAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK JUST CLIPPING A FEW
COUNTIES LIKE MARION, MORROW, KNOX, AND HOLMES. IF ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.
BUT AGAIN, THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THE STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
A REFRESHING AIRMASS FROM CANADA WILL START TO MOVE IN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. YOU CAN GIVE THE AIR CONDITIONING A
BREAK TONIGHT AND OPEN UP THE WINDOWS FOR SOME FRESH AIR. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
BRINGING A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND 5 TO 12 MPH. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL MAKE IT MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY NICE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S AREAWIDE, AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SPECTACULAR LOOKING DAY EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OR "SUMMERTIME RIDGE" OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING
WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A POTENTIAL
HEATWAVE TO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY STARTING TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A HOT AND VERY HUMID
AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY SITUATED OVER OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE
TO VERY TROPICAL LIKE LEVELS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HOTTER TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL MAKE
POTENTIAL HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 106 ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY'S WEATHER WILL BRING POTENTIAL DANGEROUS HEAT
CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN A LITTLE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC BUT STILL INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER PATTERN WITH
HOT AND STEAMY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100 POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
W'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES
AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH 12Z/MON. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID-LEVEL
AND ESPECIALLY UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECEDE
THE DISTURBANCES' AXES. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SWEEP SSE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN ~13Z AND
~23Z/SUN. BEHIND THE FRONT, A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY THROUGH 12Z/MON. ACCORDINGLY, OUR
REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND VEER GRADUALLY FROM MAINLY SW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BRIEF MVFR TO IFR SHOULD ACCOMPANY
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT, FAIR WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD VFR VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
BUILDING RIDGE. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE 1KFT TO 5KFT AGL RANGE ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH ~00Z/MON. HOWEVER, PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH ~14Z/SUN. AFTER ~00Z/MON, ANY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH BASES NEAR 5KFT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE AND SHOULD PRIMARILY RESIDE OVER AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF
LAKE ERIE SINCE A N'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF SUFFICIENTLY-
COLD AND MOIST AIR SHOULD ALLOW LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULI TO
STREAM GENERALLY S'WARD FROM THE ~78F LAKE.
NOTE: PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY, WEAK REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS, AND
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAY ALLOW
NOCTURNAL COOLING TO GENERATE MIST AND FOG BETWEEN ~08Z AND
~12Z/MON, ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IN MIST OR FOG IMPACTING ANY TAF SITE IS LOW.
OUTLOOK...CURRENT ODDS FAVOR FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, PATCHY RADIATION FOG AND ASSOCIATED
NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
ARE POSSIBLE THIS THURSDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING AS A LOW
MOVES E'WARD FROM SOUTHERN ON TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY. THE
FRONT PASSAGE WILL CAUSE SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO VEER
TO NW'ERLY AS WAVES REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT, A RIDGE BUILDS OVER LAKE ERIE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE PARENT
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO
SOUTHERN ON. IN RESPONSE, NW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS VEER
GRADUALLY TO NE'ERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NE'ERLY AROUND
5 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, N'ERLY TO NE'ERLY WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING INTO THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY 3 FEET
OR LESS, BUT OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
MONDAY MORNING, GIVEN EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF WINDS AND FETCH.
REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SINCE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVED AND
FORECAST TRENDS IN MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY.
NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT LAKE ERIE AND
THE PARENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM SOUTHERN ON TO EASTERN
NY. WAVES TREND 3 FEET OR LESS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THEN TO ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR BERMUDA. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SWEEP N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACCORDINGLY, MAINLY NE'ERLY TO
E'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS VEER GRADUALLY TO SW'ERLY. LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO TREND ONSHORE
ALONG/NEAR THE LAKESHORE FROM NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY THROUGH
ERIE COUNTY, PA. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
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