168
FXUS61 KCLE 201740
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK AND BRING A POTENTIAL HEATWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REFINE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE INITIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CONVERGENCE. THIS
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND
BE FOCUSED WHERE THE REMAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAGS AND AHEAD
OF THE DECAYING MCS. COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS IN QUESTION AS THE
12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED AN INVERSION BETWEEN 700-800MB AND AGAIN
NEAR 600MB WHICH IS LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO DECREASE AS CLOUD COVER THICKENS THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE NORTH AND EAST AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BOWLING GREEN TO MANSFIELD TO
CANTON. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO
BE DECREASING AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE
SOME VERY NICE WEATHER AND A BREAK FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS
AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BRING US SOME COMFORTABLE WEATHER TO START OFF
THE NEW WEEK IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WE ARE STARTING OFF THIS MORNING
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS OUT OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING BUT THE
REST OF THE AREA IS RAINFREE AS OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION
UPDATE.
AS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THAT COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY. THE
APPROXIMATE TIME FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR THE LAKESHORE WILL
BE LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OHIO BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. WE HAVE KEPT POPS THIS MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY 20 TO 40 PERCENT.
WE WILL BE WATCHING A DISTURBANCE NEAR IOWA THIS MORNING THAT
IS TRACKING EASTWARD AND MAY INTERACT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
INTO CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST FORECAST TRAJECTORY
SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS SOUTHWEST OF OUR
LOCAL CWA, MAINLY TOWARDS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN OHIO LATER
TODAY. BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY CLIP PARTS OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM NEAR MARION TO MOUNT VERNON THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL MOVE TOWARDS
SOUTHERN OHIO LATER TODAY. WITH THAT SAID, SPC HAS A DAY 1
OUTLOOK MARGINAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK JUST CLIPPING A FEW
COUNTIES LIKE MARION, MORROW, KNOX, AND HOLMES. IF ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.
BUT AGAIN, THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THE STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
A REFRESHING AIRMASS FROM CANADA WILL START TO MOVE IN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. YOU CAN GIVE THE AIR CONDITIONING A
BREAK TONIGHT AND OPEN UP THE WINDOWS FOR SOME FRESH AIR. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
BRINGING A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND 5 TO 12 MPH. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL MAKE IT MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY NICE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S AREAWIDE, AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SPECTACULAR LOOKING DAY EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OR "SUMMERTIME RIDGE" OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING
WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A POTENTIAL
HEATWAVE TO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY STARTING TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A HOT AND VERY HUMID
AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY SITUATED OVER OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE
TO VERY TROPICAL LIKE LEVELS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HOTTER TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL MAKE
POTENTIAL HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 106 ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY'S WEATHER WILL BRING POTENTIAL DANGEROUS HEAT
CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN A LITTLE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC BUT STILL INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER PATTERN WITH
HOT AND STEAMY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100 POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS SCATTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR TS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES, MAINLY KFDY AND KMFD. OPTED TO
INCLUDE VCTS WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH -SHRA ELSEWHERE.
SHOWERS MAY DROP CIGS/VIS TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH ~22Z/SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/DAYBREAK MONDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATIONS IMPACTED REMAINS LOW WITH THIS FORECAST
ITERATION.
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE TURNING NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY
RADIATION FOG IMPACTS TO TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ELEVATED NORTHERLY
WINDS 10-20 KNOTS MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW FOR WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 2-3
FEET, WITH INSTANCES OF 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE, ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BASIN. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR CUYAHOGA
COUNTY THROUGH LAKESHORE ASHTABULA TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TO 8-12 KNOTS AND TURN NORTHEASTERLY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. GENERALLY
EASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE
RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15 KNOTS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...10/77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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