755
FXUS61 KCLE 202323
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
723 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
SETTING UP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. FORTUNATELY, RAINFALL RATES HAVE
GENERALLY DECREASED SO THE FLOODING RISK IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CHANCE POPS TO LIKELY (AROUND
60-70 PERCENT) ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED EARLIER
THIS EVENING. REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND/OR MOVE
SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CAN BE SEEN ON
RADAR IMAGERY WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. THUS FAR WE HAVE
NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THESE SHOWERS BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS BEEN
DECREASING AS WE CLOUD UP WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN 250-500 J/KG OF
SKINNY CAPE. STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET VERY TALL WITH WARM
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS BUT ARE PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE THE REMNANT OF THE UPSTREAM AM MCS IS MOSTLY PASSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH DECAYING SHOWERS REACHING OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THEN TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES BUT MORE NOTICEABLE WILL BE THE DEWPOINTS FALLING BY 10-15
DEGREES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. SKIES WILL TEND TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR PLEASANT WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER BUILDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND BACK UP ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
OVERHEAD WITH 500MB HEIGHTS OF 594DM REACHING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
LAKE ERIE. BEFORE THE RIDGE FULLY GETS ESTABLISHED WE MAY BE
WATCHING MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OR LAKE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES LOOK FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE REGION TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE WARM FRONT. DEWPOINTS ALSO LAG
BEHIND THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND WILL BE IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING THE HEAT INDEX WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE TO CLIMB. DEWPOINTS CREEP UP INTO
THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW 90S.
THIS DOES GIVE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO CLEVELAND.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT
COULD POTENTIALLY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WAS ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FROM THURSDAY WITH THIS CYCLE GIVEN
GENERALLY DRY AIR OVERHEAD AND A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. IF WE END UP
GETTING A LAKE BREEZE THEN CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THAT BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THIS SEEMS LIKE A LOWER
CHANCE FOR A LAKE BREEZE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO
SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS (AROUND 60%) FOR
THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF SOUTHERN AREAS ARE TOO FAR
REMOVED FROM THE FORCING TO GET STORMS. THEN CONTINUED WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL IN THE VICINITY WITH EITHER A QUASI-ZONAL OR
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IMPACTED BY COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT GENERALLY LOOK
TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS PRESENT
ALONG THE FRONT. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMFD/KCAK DURING
THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT HAVE LARGELY SEEN A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN RAINFALL INTENSITY IN THE VICINITY OF
TAF SITES IN THE LAST HOUR. ANY REMAINING RAIN WILL BE ISOLATED
OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY ABOUT 03Z WITH DRY WEATHER
FAVORED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST BEHIND THE FRONT,
HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT EDT/04Z TONIGHT. SOME
AVIATION GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE GLAMP/NBM) ARE HINTING AT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS
PRIMARILY AT KFDY AND POSSIBLY AROUND KMFD LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS A BIT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. VFR IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS NEAR THE LAKESHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING PEAK
DIURNAL MIXING MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY
POTENTIAL RADIATION FOG IMPACTS. NON-VFR IS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ELEVATED NORTHERLY
WINDS 10-20 KNOTS MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW FOR WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 2-3
FEET, WITH INSTANCES OF 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE, ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BASIN. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 8-12 KNOTS AND TURN NORTHEASTERLY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. GENERALLY
EASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
EXITS TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15 KNOTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10/15
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...13
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