762
FXUS61 KCLE 210645
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
245 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE PARENT HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEAR GEORGIAN
BAY. ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EFFECT OUR REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THEN ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. HOWEVER, ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE, A WARM FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ALOFT, A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
AND VICINITY THROUGH NIGHTFALL TUESDAY EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY
AND AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE AFFECTS OUR REGION AS THE PARENT
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WOBBLES SE'WARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. FAIR
WEATHER AND PRIMARILY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES
THE RIDGE. THE CLOCKWISE, OUTWARD CIRCULATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ALLOW OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TO
VARY BETWEEN N'ERLY AND NE'ERLY TODAY AND BETWEEN NE'ERLY AND
E'ERLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
MAINTAIN A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IN THE LAKE ERIE
REGION AND UPPER OH VALLEY. LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70'S IN NW PA AND THE MID 70'S TO LOWER
80'S IN NORTHERN OH TODAY. ON TUESDAY, LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70'S IN NW PA AND MAINLY THE UPPER
70'S TO LOWER 80'S IN NORTHERN OH AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY VIA A LOWERING AND
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT, THOSE SHOULD REACH THE 50'S TO LOWER 60'S AS MAINLY
CLEAR SKY, LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL PERMIT PATCHY RADIATION FOG
FORMATION THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PERMIT
RENEWED RADIATION FOG FORMATION BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR NORTHERN OH.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TODAY AND
TOMORROW WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR
REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES FROM THE NEW ENGLAND AREA TO ATLANTIC WATERS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW
A WARM FRONT TO SWEEP N'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF WARM/HUMID
AIR FROM THE GULF TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH NIGHTFALL THURSDAY
EVENING AS STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO IMPACT NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50'S TO MID 60'S AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80'S
TO LOWER 90'S AS DAYTIME HEATING IS COMPLEMENTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT'S LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60'S TO MID 70'S AROUND
DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80'S TO MID 90'S AS CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF LIMITS NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THEN
COMPLEMENTS DAYTIME HEATING. THURSDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHS COMBINED
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F TO 75F SHOULD YIELD MAXIMUM
HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90'S TO NEAR 105F DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS OF THURSDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR BASED ON LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRENDS. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING OF LAND SURROUNDING
~78F LAKE ERIE AND A WEAK SYNOPTIC MSLP GRADIENT SHOULD PERMIT
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NEAR THE SHORE IN NORTHEASTERN
CUYAHOGA COUNTY THROUGH ERIE COUNTY, PA DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ALOFT, W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
OUR REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN SAID FLOW AND A SEPARATE, STRONGER
RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER/NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS DUE, IN PART TO SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING. AT THE SURFACE, OUR REGION SHOULD REMAIN
LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ATTEMPT TO SWEEP SSE'WARD
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, BUT THE FRONT
SHOULD ALSO TEND TO WAVER IN A GENERALLY NORTH-SOUTH MANNER NEAR
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND LAKE ERIE AS MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS
ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT
MOVE GENERALLY E'WARD ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD FINALLY
SWEEP SSE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWING THE
E'WARD PASSAGE OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
STRONGER FRONTAL SURFACE LOW, AND USHER-IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS.
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY,
INCLUDING ELEVATED CAPE, IS RELEASED BY THE FOLLOWING: MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXES; LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS OF THE FRONTAL LOWS. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
BULK SHEAR SHOULD EXIST OVER/NEAR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD AND ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO
MULTICELLS. THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR MAY ALLOW SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, A WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS ORIGINATING OVER THE
GULF WILL RESIDE IN OUR REGION AND LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
UNUSUALLY-HIGH PWAT VALUES. THUS, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
LIKELY AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR W'ERLY MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO EXHIBIT A LARGE COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND
A LAKE BREEZE FRONT THAT MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED JUST INLAND
FROM LAKE ERIE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RESPECTIVELY, FROM NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA
COUNTY THROUGH ERIE COUNTY, PA. THUS, TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN NWP MODEL GUIDANCE
IN THE COMING DAYS.
BALMY LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60'S TO MID 70'S ARE FORECAST AROUND
DAYBREAK FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY, RESPECTIVELY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND
THE WET-BULB EFFECT ASSOCIATED WITH PERIODS OF PRECIP.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 80'S ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE COOLEST HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN FOR THIS LATE NIGHT TAF UPDATE
IS SOME PATCHY MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR FOG AT MFD AND FDY THROUGH
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WE HAVE FDY WITH MVFR LIGHT FOG POSSIBLY
DROPPING DOWN TO 2SM IFR FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z THIS MORNING.
AT MFD, WE HAVE MAINLY JUST 3SM TO 5SM LIGHT FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY
POTENTIAL RADIATION FOG IMPACTS. NON-VFR IS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ELEVATED NORTHERLY
WINDS 10-20 KNOTS MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW FOR WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 2-3
FEET, WITH INSTANCES OF 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE, ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BASIN. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 8-12 KNOTS AND TURN NORTHEASTERLY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. GENERALLY
EASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
EXITS TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15 KNOTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JASZKA
NEAR TERM...JASZKA
SHORT TERM...JASZKA
LONG TERM...JASZKA
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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