120
FXUS61 KCLE 212341
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
741 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE EXITING TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOCAL
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. BY TONIGHT DRIER AIR ENGULFS THE FORECAST AREA
LEADING TO LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S. SLIGHTLY WARMER TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN THE UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
BY WEDNESDAY, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE GREAT
LAKES REGIONS AND MOVES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE
ADVECTING WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS
COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 100F ALONG AND WEST OF I-
77 CORRIDOR. THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
AS OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG TERM TURNS MORE UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS
AS LOW PRESSURE INTRODUCES A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. BY THE WEEKEND THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW CEILINGS AROUND 10KFT
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN SITES, BUT WILL BE
QUICK TO MOVE OUT BY MID MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING AFTERNOON
HEATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SITES BECOMING
VARIABLE, THOUGH SHOULD FAVOR A EAST- NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
FOR KCLE AND KERI, A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AROUND 15-16Z AND WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AT 10KTS. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 15KTS
IN THERE AS WELL. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET, 01Z, AND
WINDS AT KCLE WILL BE MORE EASTERLY.
OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. NON-VFR MAY RETURN IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
MAINLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO
HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND/OR
OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN WHERE A LAKE BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED HIGHER NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO PERHAPS 18 KNOTS. THIS
COULD BRIEFLY USHER IN SOME 3-FOOT WAVES IN THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AROUND 15 KNOTS, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
HIGHER WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY HIGHER GUSTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...23
MARINE...KAHN
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