626
FXUS61 KCLE 220745
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE AFFECTS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE EMBEDDED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM NEAR THE BORDER OF ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC TO ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, A FRONT SHOULD
ATTEMPT TO ENTER OUR REGION GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH, BUT ALSO
WAVER IN VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND LAKE ERIE, AS
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. ON
SUNDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY SWEEP GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
OUR WHOLE REGION AND BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ALOFT, A RIDGE AFFECTS OUR REGION THROUGH SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FROM NEAR THE MID AND UPPER MS
VALLEY TO NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SIMULTANEOUSLY AND AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
FROM NEAR THE ON/SOUTHWESTERN QC BORDER TO ATLANTIC WATERS JUST
EAST OF NANTUCKET. FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS AS STABILIZING
SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE RIDGE. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SWEEP N'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND USHER-IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS
ORIGINATING OVER THE GULF. PRIOR TO THE WARM FRONT'S PASSAGE, A
SLIGHTLY COOLER-THAN-NORMAL AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS PERSISTS
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND WEAK OR
CALM SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING
THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS SIGNIFICANT NOCTURNAL COOLING
AND RATHER WARM WATERWAYS WILL LIKELY PERMIT LOCALIZED RIVER
VALLEY STEAM FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF THIS
MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, RESPECTIVELY. ANY FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE SOON AFTER DAYBREAK DUE TO THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOWS MAINLY NEAR 50F TO
THE LOWER 60'S ARE EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70'S TO
LOWER 80'S LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT'S LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH MAINLY THE MID 50'S TO MID 60'S AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY, LOW-LEVEL WAA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND
DAYTIME HEATING AMIDST ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW LATE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH MAINLY THE LOWER TO MID 80'S IN NW PA
AND MAINLY THE MID 80'S TO NEAR 90F IN NORTHERN OH. SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING OF LAND SURROUNDING ~78F LAKE ERIE AND A WEAK
SYNOPTIC MSLP GRADIENT SHOULD PERMIT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG/NEAR THE SHORE IN NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY THROUGH
ERIE COUNTY, PA DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS
ALOFT MOVES FARTHER E'WARD TO NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FARTHER E'WARD TO ATLANTIC
WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
EVOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AS STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
MAINLY THE MID 60'S TO LOWER 70'S AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
DAYTIME HEATING AMIDST MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTY CLOUDY SKY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80'S TO
MID 90'S ON THURSDAY. THIS HEAT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F
TO 75F SHOULD YIELD MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90'S TO NEAR
105F DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS OF
THURSDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-77
CORRIDOR, BASED ON LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST TRENDS. LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, ALONG/NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORE FROM NORTHEASTERN
CUYAHOGA COUNTY THROUGH ERIE COUNTY, PA.
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION AS
THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AND EXTENSIVE RIDGE ALOFT
PERSISTS NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST AND OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE, OUR REGION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ATTEMPT TO ENTER
OUR REGION GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH (I.E. CENTRAL GREAT LAKES),
BUT ALSO WAVER IN VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND LAKE
ERIE AS MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE GENERALLY E'WARD ALONG THE
FRONT. PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY, INCLUDING ELEVATED CAPE, IS RELEASED BY THE
FOLLOWING: MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXES; LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS OF THE FRONTAL LOWS.
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR SHOULD EXIST OVER/NEAR OUR REGION
AND ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO
MULTICELLS. THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR MAY ALLOW SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, A WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS ORIGINATING OVER THE
GULF WILL RESIDE IN OUR REGION AND LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
UNUSUALLY-HIGH PWAT VALUES. THUS, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
LIKELY. W'ERLY MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD EXHIBIT A LARGE
COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND A LAKE BREEZE
FRONT THAT MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF FRIDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY THROUGH ERIE COUNTY, PA. THUS,
TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS MAY OCCUR AND CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN NWP
MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE COMING DAYS.
BALMY LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60'S TO MID 70'S ARE FORECAST AROUND
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RESPECTIVELY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80'S TO NEAR 90F ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY,
DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND THE WET-BULB EFFECT ASSOCIATED
WITH PERIODS OF PRECIP.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ALOFT, W'ERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BECOME NW'ERLY ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A PORTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER/NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS DUE, IN PART TO SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WAVER IN VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND LAKE ERIE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SAME REASONS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION. ON SUNDAY,
THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY SWEEP GENERALLY S'WARD THROUGH OUR
REGION, FOLLOWING THE E'WARD PASSAGE OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING STRONGER FRONTAL SURFACE LOW. BEHIND
THE WEAK FRONT, A WEAK RIDGE SHOULD BUILD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH NEGLIGIBLE AIR
MASS CHANGE.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAIN A CONCERN,
DUE TO THE SAME LIFTING MECHANISMS IN A VERY SIMILAR
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT-
TERM DISCUSSION. CURRENT ODDS FAVOR FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE
ACCOMPANIES THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE. DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG A POTENTIAL LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AND SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH AXES ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES INTERACTING
WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY.
PEEKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING
THE 80'S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND THEN THE MID 80'S TO LOWER
90'S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE MID 60'S
TO LOWER 70'S AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF UPDATE. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST 4 TO 8 KNOTS.
THERE IS A LITTLE LAND BREEZE FOR ERI FOR THE REST OF THIS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WINDS AT ERI WILL BECOME
A LAKE BREEZE UP TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. NON-VFR MAY RETURN
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR LAKE ERIE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATING THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THURSDAY. EAST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. SOME WAVES UP TO 3 FEET MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OPEN WATER AND CENTRAL BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME HIGHER WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN
THE OPEN WATERS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
LAKE BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY THE WEEKEND. NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JASZKA
NEAR TERM...JASZKA
SHORT TERM...JASZKA
LONG TERM...JASZKA
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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