571
FXUS61 KCLE 051855
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
255 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS, BUT MOST PLACES WILL
SIMPLY REMAIN WARM AND DRY.
A RATHER COMPLEX YET WEAKLY FORCED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FOUND
ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THIS AFTERNOON, CHARACTERIZED BY A NARROW
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DELTA
REGIONS IN BETWEEN BROADER MID/UPPER RIDGES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS AND OVER THE EAST COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO THE EAST, A WEAK AND INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IS AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT FROM
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH, A REMNANT MCV, AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS
GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN SW OHIO. A BAND OF VIRGA ROTATED
UP INTO NE OHIO AND WESTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTH PREVENTED ANYTHING OTHER THAN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY DEEPENS,
BUT OVERALL, MOST PLACES SHOULD STAY DRY. THE NAM AND NUMEROUS HREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST GREATER COVERAGE, BUT THEY ARE OVERDOING THE SPEED
OF THE MOISTURE RETURN, SO KEPT THE LOWER NBM POPS AND SLIGHTLY
LOWERED DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON USING THE CONSSHORT. ANY
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, AND EXPECT A DRY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 60S. A FEW UPPER 50S WILL OCCUR IN
INTERIOR NE OHIO AND NW PA. GIVEN THE STAGNANT PATTERN AND
RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS, PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN NW OHIO
AND NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND TYPICAL SHELTERED AREAS.
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK OVERALL, BUT INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE LATEST RAP AND
HREF GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO BE IN NW AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO, WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 JOULES OF MLCAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
SO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. HOWEVER, EVEN NE OHIO AND NW PA
SHOULD MANAGE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. ANY CELLS WILL BE
SLOW MOVERS DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT, AND THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW UPPER 50S WILL
OCCUR AGAIN IN INTERIOR NW PA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AND ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE INCREASING SW FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
FINALLY ALLOW THE POOL OF HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION, AND THIS ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND 17 C IN NW OHIO BY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
GRADUALLY BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S
FRIDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND LOW/UPPER
60S FRIDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WARMING MID-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS DRY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY DRIFTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BECOMES MORE OF A BERMUDA HIGH. THIS
WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN 7 DAYS OUT, SO
KEPT NBM CHANCE POPS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THIS TAF UPDATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
DRIFTING THROUGH OUR SKIES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND 5000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR
CINCINNATI THIS AFTERNOON MAY HELP DEVELOP AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN OHIO. THE COVERAGE OF THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND NOT EXPECTING
IMPACTS TO ANY OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. SOME RESIDUAL HAZE AND
UPPER LEVEL WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH OUR
SKIES TODAY BUT REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY AT 6SM
OR GREATER. THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG IN
THE USUAL SPOTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. A LAKE BREEZE MAY COME OFF THE LAKE UP TO
10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT CLE AND ERI THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT
SWITCHES BACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...VFR LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NON-VFR VISIBILITY EVERY MORNING IN TYPICAL
LOCATIONS FOR VALLEY FOG.
MARINE
VERY NICE MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND ON LAKE ERIE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC AND CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. OVERALL WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS OF LESS THROUGH SATURDAY. WIND
DIRECTION ON THE LAKE WILL BE DOMINATED BY LAKE AND LAND
BREEZES WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BE AROUND A FOOT OR
LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LAKE BY THIS WEEKEND AND THERE WILL BE SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW 8 TO 12 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET OVER THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE SLIGHT UPTICK OF THE SOUTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND WITH
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES
FOR THE LAKE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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