695
FXUS61 KCLE 060623
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
223 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND LOW/MID LEVEL AXIS OF MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT AND PWATS NEARING 1.50 INCHES PRESENT ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
LATEST 00Z CAMS REGARDING ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY AS THE WEAK TROUGH GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. FOR NOW HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS SETTLING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD BACK INTO TOWARDS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE LONG TERM ALLOWING FOR WARM, MOIST
AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL
NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY AS
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS HAVE A SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVE IN THE
VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE AND LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SATURDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY SETTLE IN THE UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE EASTERN CONUS
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO LARGELY CONTROL THE
WEATHER OVER THE AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT WITH A MIX
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL BE
INTERMITTENT WITH THIS BATCH OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT KTOL AND KERI - FOR KTOL, IT
WILL MAINLY BE MIST WITH LOW TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS; FOR
KERI, IT WILL BE A MIX OF MIST AND HAZE WITH SOME SMOKE STILL
MIXING DOWN ACROSS THE NE US.
A RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HELP FROM A
WEAK TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CUMULUS. A
COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD POP IN NORTHWEST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF CONFIDENCE TO HAVE A PROB30
FOR A BRIEF WINDOW AT KFDY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR ALL OTHER TERMINALS. CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...VFR LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NON-VFR VISIBILITY EVERY MORNING IN TYPICAL
LOCATIONS FOR VALLEY FOG.
MARINE
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL ENTER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FOR THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND
ALLOW FOR BENIGN MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AT GENERALLY 10 KTS WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A WARM FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY, OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OF THE WARM FRONT REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
OVERALL, WAVES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS AND
MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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