188  
FXUS61 KCLE 061316  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
916 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH  
TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL  
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ANOTHER MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADD SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO  
FAR NORHTEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA, WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN  
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT AND MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR ANOTHER TWO  
HOURS OR SO. OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH  
TONIGHT. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR  
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE  
UPPER TROUGH AND LOW/MID LEVEL AXIS OF MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WEAK  
FLOW ALOFT AND PWATS NEARING 1.50 INCHES PRESENT ALONG THE I-75  
CORRIDOR. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE  
AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE  
LATEST 00Z CAMS REGARDING ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON  
THURSDAY AS THE WEAK TROUGH GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. FOR NOW HAVE  
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE RIDGE RE-  
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO  
RISE INTO THE MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS SETTLING IN THE  
LOW/MID 60S TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD BACK INTO TOWARDS THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE LONG TERM ALLOWING FOR WARM, MOIST  
AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEGINNING  
OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL  
NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY AS  
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS HAVE A SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVE IN THE  
VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE AND LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. HEAT AND  
HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S  
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SATURDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER  
60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY SETTLE IN THE UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT  
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE EASTERN CONUS  
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT  
WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S  
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN NORTHWEST OHIO THIS  
MORNING AND MAY IMPACT THE KTOL TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR  
TWO. SOME MVFR WITH HAZE HAS ALSO REAPPEARED AT KERI WITH THE  
SOME AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL SMOKE MIXING TO THE SURFACE. MID-LEVEL  
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON AND SOME SCATTERED LOW VFR CUMULUS COULD ALSO FORM  
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS COULD POP THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST OHIO AND PERHAPS POINTS FURTHER EAST  
INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF CONFIDENCE TO  
HAVE A PROB30 FOR A BRIEF WINDOW AT KFDY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN  
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR ALL OTHER TERMINALS.  
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. WINDS  
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE  
EAST TO SOUTHEAST.  
 
OUTLOOK...VFR LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NON-VFR VISIBILITY EVERY MORNING IN TYPICAL  
LOCATIONS FOR VALLEY FOG.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A HIGH  
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL ENTER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS SYSTEM  
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FOR THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND  
ALLOW FOR BENIGN MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT  
AT GENERALLY 10 KTS WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A WARM FRONT  
WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY, OFFSHORE FLOW  
WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM OF THE WARM FRONT REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.  
OVERALL, WAVES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS AND  
MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...13  
NEAR TERM...03/13  
SHORT TERM...13  
LONG TERM...13  
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC  
MARINE...SEFCOVIC  
 
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