239
FXUS61 KCLE 061756
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
156 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADD SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO
FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA, WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT AND MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR ANOTHER TWO
HOURS OR SO. OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND LOW/MID LEVEL AXIS OF MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT AND PWATS NEARING 1.50 INCHES PRESENT ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
LATEST 00Z CAMS REGARDING ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY AS THE WEAK TROUGH GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. FOR NOW HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS SETTLING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD BACK INTO TOWARDS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE LONG TERM ALLOWING FOR WARM, MOIST
AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL
NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY AS
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS HAVE A SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVE IN THE
VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE AND LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SATURDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY SETTLE IN THE UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE EASTERN CONUS
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OHIO AND IN
NW PA. COVERAGE IS LOW CONFIDENCE, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ALL
SITES REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY, BUT ADDED VCTS AT KFDY, AND KEPT A
TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AT KERI. AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TONIGHT,
ALL SITES WILL BE DRY AND VFR.
S TO SE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN S TO SE AT 5-10 KNOTS AGAIN THURSDAY. A
LAKE BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS NE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KCLE AND KERI
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...VFR LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NON-VFR VISIBILITY EVERY MORNING IN TYPICAL
LOCATIONS FOR VALLEY FOG.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
LIGHT S WINDS AVERAGING 5-15 KNOTS, BUT DAILY LAKE BREEZES WILL
TURN WINDS E TO NE EACH AFTERNOON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, AND EXPECT SW WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...03
NEAR TERM...03
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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