539
FXUS61 KCLE 070550
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
150 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE AREA WILL REMAIN
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC REGIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OHIO, WHERE FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNSET. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED, ALTHOUGH SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ELSEWHERE, SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TOMORROW DESPITE SOME HI RES GUIDANCE
HINTING AT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO, BUT A LACK OF FORCING
AND MUCH LOWER TO NON-EXSISTANT INSTABILITY PRECLUDES ANY POPS
AT THIS TIME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH
LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL UPSTREAM
MCS ACTIVITY WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS REMNANT ACTIVITY COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE TRACK, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
EXPLICIT FORECAST MENTION. TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND HIGH SATURDAY IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS TO SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER,
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS COULD BRING A COLD FRONT TO
THE AREA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT
SLOWER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THEN DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, WE COULD SEE
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BY MIDWEEK, BUT ODDS STILL LEAN TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE FOCUSED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CAN
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT TOL/FDY BUT A CAPPING INVERSION LOOKS TO
LIMIT POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER IN NW OHIO AND THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AT BOTH TOL AND FDY. MVFR SEEMS MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 08-12Z BUT A WINDOW OF IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT TOL. OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN LAKE BREEZES AT CLE AND ERI ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER THAN NORMAL IF AT
ALL. DID BRING A LAKE BREEZE INTO CLE AT 20Z WITH MORE OF AN
EAST NORTHEAST LAKE BREEZE AT ERI.
OUTLOOK...VFR LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NON-VFR VISIBILITY EVERY MORNING IN TYPICAL
LOCATIONS FOR VALLEY FOG.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
LIGHT S WINDS AVERAGING 5-15 KNOTS, BUT DAILY LAKE BREEZES WILL
TURN WINDS E TO NE EACH AFTERNOON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, AND EXPECT SW WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...03
NEAR TERM...03
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...10
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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