677
FXUS61 KCLE 070748
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE NESTLED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO LARGELY
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ITERATIONS, KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME VERY ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S WITH LOWS SETTLING
IN THE MID 60S TONIGHT. LARGELY DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY
THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN
UPSTREAM MCS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW, OPTED TO
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY AS
HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HEAT AND HUMIDITY CLIMB AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID 90S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
IN URBAN AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PUSHED EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK USHERING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE FOCUSED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CAN
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT TOL/FDY BUT A CAPPING INVERSION LOOKS TO
LIMIT POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER IN NW OHIO AND THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AT BOTH TOL AND FDY. MVFR SEEMS MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 08-12Z BUT A WINDOW OF IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT TOL. OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN LAKE BREEZES AT CLE AND ERI ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER THAN NORMAL IF AT
ALL. DID BRING A LAKE BREEZE INTO CLE AT 20Z WITH MORE OF AN
EAST NORTHEAST LAKE BREEZE AT ERI.
OUTLOOK...VFR LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NON-VFR VISIBILITY EVERY MORNING IN TYPICAL
LOCATIONS FOR VALLEY FOG.
MARINE
GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND INFLUENCES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL TEND TO FAVOR A LAND BREEZE WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF 5-15 KNOTS RETURNS OVERNIGHT ON LAKE ERIE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS MOST DAYS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND WILL TEND TO STALL
NEAR LAKE ERIE. THIS COULD RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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