253
FXUS61 KCLE 071154
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
754 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE NESTLED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO LARGELY
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ITERATIONS, KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME VERY ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S WITH LOWS SETTLING
IN THE MID 60S TONIGHT. LARGELY DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY
THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN
UPSTREAM MCS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW, OPTED TO
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY AS
HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HEAT AND HUMIDITY CLIMB AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID 90S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
IN URBAN AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PUSHED EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK USHERING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A LITTLE PATCHY FOG IS IN PLACE TOWARDS TOL WITH HAZE AT ERI
THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 13-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. INCREASING
DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK,
WITH GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS NW OHIO. CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON AT TOL/FDY BUT A CAPPING
INVERSION LOOKS TO LIMIT POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN LAKE BREEZES AT CLE AND ERI ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER THAN NORMAL IF AT
ALL. DID BRING A LAKE BREEZE INTO CLE AT 20Z WITH MORE OF AN
EAST NORTHEAST LAKE BREEZE AT ERI.
OUTLOOK...VFR LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NON-VFR VISIBILITY EVERY MORNING IN TYPICAL
LOCATIONS FOR VALLEY FOG.
MARINE
GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND INFLUENCES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL TEND TO FAVOR A LAND BREEZE WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF 5-15 KNOTS RETURNS OVERNIGHT ON LAKE ERIE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS MOST DAYS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND WILL TEND TO STALL
NEAR LAKE ERIE. THIS COULD RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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