372
FXUS61 KCLE 072320
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MORE
VERY NICE, SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
AUGUST. OUR WEATHER PATTERN IS BEING DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT IS CENTERED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS, THERE IS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CONUS THAT WILL BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY POP-UP CONVECTION TODAY. THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY DRY AND PERHAPS A SMALL CAP TO
LIMIT ANY VERTICAL CU GROWTH. THE FLAT CU FROM THIS AFTERNOON
WILL FADE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE EXPECTING A
PLEASANT EVENING FOR ANY OUTDOORS ACTIVITIES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING. ON FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE BASICALLY A COPY OF TODAY'S
WEATHER FOR TOMORROW. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE AROUND ON FRIDAY. WE DON'T REALLY
HAVE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A VERY SMALL
CHANCE FOR A POP-UP SHOWER DOWN CLOSER TO CENTRAL OHIO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE POPS ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS FOR THAT ISOLATED
CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BACK
INTO MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD AND HARD TO
BEAT AS WE HEAD INTO LATE SUMMER. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM TEXAS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE,
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WE WILL
SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WHICH WILL
MAKE THE HEAT INDEX VALUES UP INTO THE MIDDLE 90S BY SUNDAY.
WHILE FOR THE MOST PART, WE ARE EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. WE CAN'T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWER OR STORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. POPS ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS FOR
THAT SMALL CHANCE. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE QUIET WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS OUR AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WE WILL START OFF NEXT WEEK HOT AND HUMID ON MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL TRY TO SLIP DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
INTO INTO TUESDAY BUT IT WILL RUN INTO RESISTANCE FROM THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FRONT
STALLING OUT NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WE WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR BY OR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. POPS MAY LOWER
TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR. WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10KTS TONIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY
10KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH FEW-SCT FL040-050.
OUTLOOK...VFR LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NON-VFR VISIBILITY EVERY MORNING IN TYPICAL
LOCATIONS FOR VALLEY FOG.
MARINE
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ON
LAKE ERIE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 15KT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THOUGH
OTHERWISE WILL REMAIN <15KT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY FLIP ONSHORE DUE TO AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH LAKE
ERIE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT NOT CROSS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT (BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20KT), WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
RETURNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. WAVES MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO
2-3 FEET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS IN THE OPEN WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO BRIEFLY ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE, WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 2 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE LAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...26
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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