396
FXUS61 KCLE 082251
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
651 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS THE
REGION CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER WAS FOUND ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BETWEEN CLEVELAND AND ERIE, PA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH HAS SINCE DIMINISHED GIVEN LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING FROM NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT
ANOTHER ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE INTO THIS
EVENING, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL APPEARS RATHER LIMITED GIVEN A
LACK OF ANY ROBUST CU.
A SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE. ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO, THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES ANY PRECIPITATION
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INCH SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FLEETING
HIGH PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING MID-WEEK SYSTEM, STILL EXPECTING AN AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES MAKING UP THE DIFFERENCE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN ACTIVE AND MORE HUMID WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE TAKING
SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK. THERE APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL BEING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A RATHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN
WOULD BE A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT WITH ANOMALOOUSLY-HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.0 INCHES COUPLED WITH
GENERALLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FORCING IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/SUN AS A RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SIMULTANEOUSLY, OUR
REGION REMAINS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE
PORTION OF THE RIDGE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR
LONG ISLAND AND VICINITY. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PRIMARILY VARY BETWEEN SE'ERLY AND SW'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, A LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE
OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN ~15Z/SAT AND
00Z/SUN, AND PENETRATE UP TO SEVERAL MILES INLAND. THUS, THE
LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KERI.
OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE FORECAST
THIS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
VERY NICE AND ENJOYABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER LAKE ERIE THIS
WEEKEND. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BE AROUND OVER
THE WEEKEND. A LIGHT LAKE BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LAKE
FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS SETTLING SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...77
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