025
FXUS61 KCLE 090737
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
337 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL WAVER OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH, RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
BUILDING HUMIDITY STARTING TODAY. CURRENTLY THINK THAT
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PREVENT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING, HOWEVER SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE IN NW PA AND POSSIBLY FAR NE
OH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGH RES MEMBERS ARE HINTING AT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS TOO LOW
TO INTRODUCE ANY POPS TO ANY PORTION OF THE PERIOD AT THIS
POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. EITHER WAY, DIURNAL CUMULUS AND A
LAKE BREEZE ARE ANTICIPATED EACH AFTERNOON.
RETURN FLOW WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S TODAY WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED ALONG AND
WEST OF I-75. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON
SUNDAY. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
STARTING TODAY, ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE IN
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO MAY EXPERIENCE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WARM AIR ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE MAJORITY
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DUE
TO LACK OF FORCING, ALTHOUGH POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF
CONFIDENCE IN ANY LAKE BREEZE-DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASES.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE JUICY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH THE RECENTLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD MITIGATE THE FLOODING RISK.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH HE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
EXPECTED EACH DAY. INCREASED CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES MAY ALLOW TEMPS
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIPPLING
EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE'S STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ITS RESULTING
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA, BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT, HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND THE
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE APPALACHIANS
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 5K FEET AND SOME
CIRRUS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING SOME HAZE THAT IS ALREADY OCCURRING AT ERI.
MVFR VISIBILITES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT 6 MILES OR
BETTER TO RESUME ON SATURDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT AT CLE
AND ERI WHERE LAKE BREEZES WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS
POSSIBLE AROUND 18Z AT ERI AND TOWARDS 21Z AT CLE.
OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE FORECAST
THIS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH WAVES OF GENERALLY 1 FOOT OR
LESS. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-15 KNOTS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT TENDS TO STALL IN THE VICINITY AND WE DO
NOT SEE A REAL WIND SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH UNTIL THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE LAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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