152
FXUS61 KCLE 091758
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL WAVER OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH, RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
BUILDING HUMIDITY STARTING TODAY. CURRENTLY THINK THAT
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PREVENT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING, HOWEVER SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE IN NW PA AND POSSIBLY FAR NE
OH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGH RES MEMBERS ARE HINTING AT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS TOO LOW
TO INTRODUCE ANY POPS TO ANY PORTION OF THE PERIOD AT THIS
POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. EITHER WAY, DIURNAL CUMULUS AND A
LAKE BREEZE ARE ANTICIPATED EACH AFTERNOON.
RETURN FLOW WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S TODAY WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED ALONG AND
WEST OF I-75. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON
SUNDAY. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
STARTING TODAY, ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE IN
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO MAY EXPERIENCE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WARM AIR ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE MAJORITY
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DUE
TO LACK OF FORCING, ALTHOUGH POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF
CONFIDENCE IN ANY LAKE BREEZE-DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASES.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE JUICY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH THE RECENTLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD MITIGATE THE FLOODING RISK.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH HE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
EXPECTED EACH DAY. INCREASED CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES MAY ALLOW TEMPS
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIPPLING
EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE'S STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ITS RESULTING
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA, BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT, HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND THE
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGIONS. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH JUST AFTERNOON
CUMULUS AND OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
S WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TONIGHT
BEFORE TURNING SW SUNDAY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS AGAIN. A
LAKE BREEZE WILL AFFECT KERI THIS AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS MORE N
TO NE, OTHERWISE, THE SAME WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE FORECAST
THIS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH S TO SW WINDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES TURNING THE
WINDS MORE N TO NE EACH DAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN W AT
5 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH WINDS THEN BECOMING N TO NE BY THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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