792
FXUS61 KCLE 091856
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
256 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS THE
REGION CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CAN'T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE, THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE PRECLUDES
MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. FOR THE MOST PART,
HEAT INDICES WILL CLOSELY MIRROR THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES AS DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO, AS A
COLD FRONT AND RATHER POTENT UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH SWING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MID- LEVEL FLOW APPEARS RATHER WEAK
(AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 700 MB) WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, THOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS
POSSIBLE GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.0
INCHES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY PERSIST TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT GAINS MOMENTUM AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE AREA.
QUIET AND WARM WEATHER ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
90-DEGREE MARK IN MOST AREAS, WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING THE
MID-90S IN SOME SPOTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD NOW
APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION THIS CYCLE, RESULTING IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT PERHAPS FURTHER SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING TIMING TRENDS OF THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE NOW APPEARS TO QUICKLY BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH
WOULD FAVOR A MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN MAY EVEN PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY AS WE BEGIN TO EYE ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGIONS. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH JUST AFTERNOON
CUMULUS AND OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
S WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TONIGHT
BEFORE TURNING SW SUNDAY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS AGAIN. A
LAKE BREEZE WILL AFFECT KERI THIS AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS MORE N
TO NE, OTHERWISE, THE SAME WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE FORECAST
THIS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH S TO SW WINDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES TURNING THE
WINDS MORE N TO NE EACH DAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN W AT
5 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH WINDS THEN BECOMING N TO NE BY THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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