341
FXUS61 KCLE 100714
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
314 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND SLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, FOSTERING CONTINUED WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NW OH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE
MENTIONABLE POPS. A FEW CAMS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING/COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S EXPECTED
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL MOST LIKELY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE LAKESHORE OF OHIO AND ACROSS NW OH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
GUIDANCE IS STILL TRENDING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT
AND IT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. HAVE AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES PEAKING DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW AT THE MOMENT, BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE HUMID AIR
MASS AND POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY WITH HEAT
INDICES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/MONDAY EXPECTED. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES MAY THROW A WRENCH INTO
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL TREND A BIT COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LIKELY SLOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SOUTH IN ITS WAKE. THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING SO CONTINUE
(GENERALLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN) SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT POSSIBLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 80S WITH A
WARMING TREND POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A DRY FORECAST. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 4500
FEET. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DIP TO MVFR FOR VISIBILITIES
TOWARDS SUNRISE IN PATCHY FOG BUT EXPECTING TO MAINTAIN SOME
LIGHT MIXING OVERNIGHT SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TERMINALS.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4-8 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT AT CLE AND ERI WHERE LAKE BREEZES AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18-02Z.
OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE FORECAST
THIS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
MARINE CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BE GOOD THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS, TRANSITIONING TO LAKE BREEZES WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH WAVES OF 1 FOOT OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-15 KNOTS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE FRONT TENDS TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LAKE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN IT FINALLY PUSHES
SOUTH WITH ONSHORE FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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