794
FXUS61 KCLE 101806
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
206 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND SLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, FOSTERING CONTINUED WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NW OH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE
MENTIONABLE POPS. A FEW CAMS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING/COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S EXPECTED
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL MOST LIKELY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE LAKESHORE OF OHIO AND ACROSS NW OH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
GUIDANCE IS STILL TRENDING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT
AND IT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. HAVE AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES PEAKING DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW AT THE MOMENT, BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE HUMID AIR
MASS AND POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY WITH HEAT
INDICES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/MONDAY EXPECTED. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES MAY THROW A WRENCH INTO
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL TREND A BIT COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LIKELY SLOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SOUTH IN ITS WAKE. THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING SO CONTINUE
(GENERALLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN) SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT POSSIBLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 80S WITH A
WARMING TREND POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY. ONLY
AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND OCCASIONAL CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED.
S WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN LIGHT
S TO SE TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING MORE SW AND INCREASING TO 5-10
KNOTS AGAIN MONDAY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL IMPACT KCLE AND KERI FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE WINDS TURN BACK
OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE FORECAST
THIS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE, WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT,
WITH GENERALLY S WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL TURN W
AT 5-10 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY AND E TO NE AT 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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