923
FXUS61 KCLE 101857
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
257 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CHANGE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH, AND WELL-
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANY SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTHWEST OHIO AND
GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION'S
WEATHER PATTERN AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ON TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA, AS LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY PERSIST ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE.
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, EXTENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUGGEST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING OFF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY IMPACTING
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST, REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE NORM FOR THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY
AND GENERALLY MID-80S ON WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL BE THE
HIGHEST ON TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID-90S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO DEVELOP FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WILL NEED
TO START WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW POP-UP
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID-80S ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY. ONLY
AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND OCCASIONAL CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED.
S WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN LIGHT
S TO SE TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING MORE SW AND INCREASING TO 5-10
KNOTS AGAIN MONDAY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL IMPACT KCLE AND KERI FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE WINDS TURN BACK
OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE FORECAST
THIS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE, WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT,
WITH GENERALLY S WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL TURN W
AT 5-10 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY AND E TO NE AT 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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