605
FXUS61 KCLE 111804
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
204 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY AND MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
AND INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE HEAT CONTINUES DURING THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES TODAY WILL CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE FOR TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT
INDEX VALUES UP ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE
EAST OF I-71 WILL REMAIN CAPPED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. MEANWHILE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS NW OHIO WITH 500-800
J/KG OF ML CAPE. A LACK OF FORCING REMAINS WITH THE BETTER FOCUS
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE A SHORTWAVE PASSES WITH WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW POP IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WHILE TUESDAY REMAINS HOT, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS MICHIGAN AHEAD
OF A STRONGER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY ALSO BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE IN NORTHEAST OHIO/NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN FINALLY ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NW OHIO
TOWARDS EVENING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS AND FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT MAKING TRAINING A POSSIBILITY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
MOIST WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTION AROUND 20-25
KNOTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BECOMING FOCUSED MORE SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
THE FRONT DOES NOT BRING A BIG COOL DOWN BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY THEN LOWER 80S WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND
LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL SEE LOWS
DROP INTO THE MID 50S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 FOR MANY AREAS
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BOTH LOOK DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. TIMING THE
FRONT BACK SOUTH WILL LIE WITH THE STRENGTH OF A TROUGH CROSSING
EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY AND MAY BE DELAYED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NW OHIO AND NEAR THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT KTOL, KFDY, AND KMFD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE, BUT USED VCTS/VCSH AT THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED DROPS IN CIGS/VIS WILL COME
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
S TO SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY, AND
EXPECT ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE TO SHIFT WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AT KERI
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING S TO SW AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
THE LAKE WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE WEEK AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT S TO SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL TURN
MORE W BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE BEFORE VEERING N
TO NE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WEAK CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL TREND MORE
SOUTHERLY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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