923
FXUS61 KCLE 111900
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
300 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE GIVEN AN
UNFAVORABLE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK FORCING. A STRONGER
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF TOWARDS THE WEST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND EASTERN MICHIGAN WHICH IS RESULTING IN
MORE ESTABLISHED UPDRAFTS AND INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF
IMPACTS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OHIO, INCLUDING THE TOLEDO AREA.
APART FROM A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
A LAKE BREEZE BETWEEN CLEVELAND AND ERIE IN THE AFTERNOON, ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A
MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AROUND SUNSET OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE- LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME. THIS PRE-FRONTAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE
MID-90S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL FEATURE
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WILL THEN NEED TO MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AND HOW
WELL IT IS ABLE TO RECOVER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS EAST THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MODELS DO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-71 CORRIDOR, SO WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST
ITERATIONS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A MAINLY DRY AND
QUIET FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE US-30 CORRIDOR, CLOSER TO THE
FRONT.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
THE PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY CREEP UP AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NW OHIO AND NEAR THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT KTOL, KFDY, AND KMFD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE, BUT USED VCTS/VCSH AT THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED DROPS IN CIGS/VIS WILL COME
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
S TO SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY, AND
EXPECT ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE TO SHIFT WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AT KERI
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING S TO SW AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
THE LAKE WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE WEEK AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT S TO SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL TURN
MORE W BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE BEFORE VEERING N
TO NE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WEAK CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL TREND MORE
SOUTHERLY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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