067
FXUS61 KCLE 120757
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
357 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY PUSHING A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON THURSDAY AND INFLUENCE THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LOCAL AREA RESIDES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ONE MORE HOT DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY BEFORE THE HEAT DECREASES WITH A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 AGAIN TODAY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER
90S.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM RESIDES AROUND TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STARTING OFF TODAY, THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY THIS MORNING ASIDE FROM SOME LOW AND MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN CROSSING LAKE ERIE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOME OF
THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS FAR NE OHIO AND
NW PENNSYLVANIA AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. HRRR SOUNDINGS NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE SUGGEST ML
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1200 J/KG WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED. LOWERED POPS FOR INLAND AREAS AND ALSO
DECREASED THE COVERAGE SLIGHTLY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
TIMING. THE NAM FAVORS A FASTER ARRIVAL WHILE THE RAP/GFS ARE
CLOSER TO 00Z OR LATER BEFORE WE SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. FOR
THIS REASON WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOISTURE MOVING UP THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND COVERAGE INCREASES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REACHES NW OHIO THIS EVENING WHILE
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK NEAR CHICAGO. A PUSH OF LOW
AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO NE OHIO. PW VALUES
WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES AND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR TOLEDO WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS
FROM OVERNIGHT MAY STILL BE ONGOING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE MORNING. GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. WHILE
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, POCKETS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH WET MICROBURSTS BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM WITH ONE MORE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP ON THURSDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW 80S WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO SUGGEST A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
CROSS LAKE ERIE BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXPECTING A
MOSTLY DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY START TO CREEP BACK UP A
COUPLE DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS
CHICAGO OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER THAT WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AND WHEN A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE COULD PUSH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY OR MONDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL A FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG MAY AT INLAND TERMINALS AND ACROSS NW OH TONIGHT,
HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE
REDUCED BELOW VFR. ISOLATED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO AND ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE IN NE OH/NW
PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED NATURE OF ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS, MOST TERMINALS WITH RAIN CHANCES HAVE PROB30
GROUPS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS
IN PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER AT KTOL/KFDY SO
HAVE VCSH FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT,
RESULTING IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS, BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN WEST OF KCLE/KMFD THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS THAT
MOVE DIRECTLY OVER TERMINALS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF MORE WESTERLY FLOW AT KCLE AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT KERI
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MARINE
GENERALLY EXPECT QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY DUE TO A
LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS IN THE OPEN WATERS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 10 TO 15
KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS DEVELOP SATURDAY. DAILY LAKE BREEZES ARE
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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