003
FXUS61 KCLE 140543
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
143 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED
BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD LAKE ERIE, WITH
THIS FRONT HANGING IN THE VICINITY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
7:30 PM UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT
DISSIPATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A LARGE COLD POOL,
CLOUD COVER, AND ASSOCIATED CIN HAS COVERED THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED
REDEVELOPMENT DESPITE HREF CAMS WANTING TO DEVELOP QUITE A BIT
OF CONVECTION, THUS LOWERING CONFIDENCE. RECENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW
SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND IN
INTERIOR NE OHIO ON NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, SO EXPECT THAT
MORE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE MAY
NOT BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT
SLIGHTLY SLOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH POPS GRADUALLY
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AS THE BROKEN LINE MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE PITTSBURGH AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY BUILDING
UP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (1500-2000 JOULES OF MLCAPE) AND
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS
WITHIN THE STRONGEST CORES, BUT WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
WEAK FLOW ALOFT (ALMOST NO SHEAR) WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT
VERY ISOLATED. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PWATS OF 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES, DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS, AND
SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND
DECENT DURATION AS THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MOST AT-RISK AREAS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. A DEVELOPING INVERSION, SMALL TEMP/DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS, WET GROUND, AND LENGTHENING NIGHTS ALL SUPPORT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR NE
OHIO AND NW PA, SO EXPANDED FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL ONLY GLANCE THE
REGION TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, BUT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NOTABLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S, WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 50S/LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
REDEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER AND PLEASANT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
BUT THE HIGHER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL SURGE NORTHEASTWARD BACK
INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES (MCS ACTIVITY) ROTATING AROUND
THE RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE REGION
BY SATURDAY, BUT WITH THE HIGH THETA E/INSTABILITY GRADIENT
LOOKING TO STAY TO OUR WEST SATURDAY AND TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY
WITH THESE PATTERNS, KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AT
THIS TIME. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION MAY COME LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN AREAS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S SATURDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REACHING 594-596
DM OVER MO AND IL, BEFORE STARTING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
BY MONDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PUSH SOUTH DUE TO
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE TO THE SW. THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS
INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH THE
FRONT LIKELY TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MUCH
COOLER, DRIER, AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT IS FORCED
SOUTHWARD. NBM POPS AND TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT INLAND
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AT KMFD/KCAK/KYNG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
MORE LIKELY AT KTOL/KFDY. CAN'T RULE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS KCLE/KERI SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY NON-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AS DIURNAL MIXING DEVELOPS BY MID-MORNING. VFR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
YIELDING CALM MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS/13
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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