257
FXUS61 KCLE 141128
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
728 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD LAKE ERIE,
WITH THIS FRONT HANGING IN THE VICINITY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GEORGIAN BAY EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
BECOMING MORE MANAGEABLE. IT SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A REALLY NICE
DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH, THOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. A LIGHT LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE,
PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S RETURN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT WAVERS ACROSS THE
BROADER REGION. IN GENERAL THOUGH, WE ARE EXPECTING PERIODS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST IN A LOW 20-30% RANGE. WEAK FORCING IN MODEL GUIDANCE
AND JUST GENERAL EXPECTATION FOR LOW PRECIPITATION COVERAGE PREVENTS
HIGHER POPS FOR ANY ONE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME WEAK INDICATIONS OF
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AT SOME POINT, SO
WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TEND TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH HIGHS DROPPING TO THE
LOW 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING AS DIURNAL MIXING DEVELOPS. VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF INLAND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN FOG FRIDAY MORNING IS HIGHEST AT
KMFD/KYNG.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
YIELDING CALM MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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