860
FXUS61 KCLE 141739
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
139 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD LAKE ERIE,
WITH THIS FRONT HANGING IN THE VICINITY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GEORGIAN BAY EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
BECOMING MORE MANAGEABLE. IT SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A REALLY NICE
DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH, THOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. A LIGHT LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE,
PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S RETURN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT WAVERS ACROSS THE
BROADER REGION. IN GENERAL THOUGH, WE ARE EXPECTING PERIODS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST IN A LOW 20-30% RANGE. WEAK FORCING IN MODEL GUIDANCE
AND JUST GENERAL EXPECTATION FOR LOW PRECIPITATION COVERAGE PREVENTS
HIGHER POPS FOR ANY ONE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME WEAK INDICATIONS OF
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AT SOME POINT, SO
WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TEND TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH HIGHS DROPPING TO THE
LOW 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A FEW/SCT LAYER OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AT 025-040 DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING
AND INFLUENCE OF A LAKE BREEZE. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DRIER MID-LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BR AND/OR FG DEVELOPING EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA FROM KCAK
TO KYNG. CAN'T RULE OUT KMFD SEEING LOWER VIS DUE TO BR EITHER,
BUT CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASE. VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TOMORROW
WHEN THE FOG DISSIPATES.
LIGHT WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE FORMING.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AT AROUND
00-03Z. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM TOMORROW,
THOUGH IT WILL BE WEAK AND WILL ONLY IMPACT KCLE AND KERI IN THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT, AROUND 10 KNOTS, AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND MORE
SOUTHERLY OVER THE LAKE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT, THEN VEER TO BE NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
NORTH TO START NEXT WEEK AND WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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