962
FXUS61 KCLE 142350
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN WESTERN OHIO OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR TWO WHERE LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER THAT, EXPECT ALL
AREAS TO BE DRY AS THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
STEADILY DROPPING THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL SET UP A PICTURE
PERFECT EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, SO LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. SMALL TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS AND
RECENT RAINS WILL LEAD TO A GOOD FOG SET-UP AGAIN IN INTERIOR
NE OHIO AND NW PA, BUT IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS
LAST NIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING NE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL
STILL MAINTAIN AN E TO NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF DRY AIR, SO DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DESPITE THE WARMING AIR
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S IN NE
OHIO AND NW PA TO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN NW AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL REALLY BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE OF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL LIFT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN WEAK
OVERALL FORCING, KEPT FRIDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW, BUT CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WARM/MOIST/THETA-E
ADVECTION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AS
A CLOSED 594 DM H5 HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER MO, SOUTHERN IA,
AND IL. THIS WILL ALLOW 70S DEW POINTS TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION, ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP A HOT AND HUMID DAY.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
(MCS), OR AT LEAST A DECAYING ONE, MAY MOVE THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
CORFIDI VECTORS COULD DIVE THIS SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN OHIO
SOMETIME IN THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
SINCE THE BEST INSTABILITY/THETA-E GRADIENT MAY BE FROM
WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE REALLY IS NOT ANY FORCING
OTHER THAN ANY ESTABLISHED COLD POOLS OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, SO
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. WITH THIS BEING SAID, KEPT NBM POPS (DRY FORECAST)
SATURDAY WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES COULD "BUST" IF SOME FORM OF AN
MCS MOVES INTO THE REGION, SO STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SATURDAY'S FORECAST.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE, AND THIS
WILL START TO RETROGRADE THE RIDGE WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO BRING
CONVECTION INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
PUSHES A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR MCS FORMATION AS THE SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH A
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET AND POOL OF STRONG INSTABILITY BENEATH
AN EML TO THE WEST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA, BUT AGAIN,
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, TRACK, AND EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE NBM LOOK REASONABLE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK. CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY, WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER
80S EXPECTED. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MUGGY,
WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BUT COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW/UPPER
60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
BETWEEN NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK
AS TROUGHING DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, BUT THE ENTIRE
PATTERN IS TRENDING SLOWER, PARTLY DUE TO WHAT WILL BE HURRICANE
ERIN LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND HUMID WEATHER. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY FINALLY PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A MASSIVE CANADIAN HIGH
OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. NBM TEMPERATURES AND POPS
LOOKED FINE THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
TRENDING COOLER.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/MIST IS POSSIBLE
IN TYPICAL LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH ONLY HAVE IT INCLUDED AT YNG. FALLING
DEW POINTS AND A SLIGHT BREEZE MAKES CONFIDENCE IN FOG/MIST
DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS LOW. SKIES ARE
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AT <5KT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT,
SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT 3-7KT ON FRIDAY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL FLIP
WINDS ONSHORE AT 5-10KT AT CLE AND ERI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOWER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY,
WITH GREATER POTENTIAL RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT, AROUND 10 KNOTS, AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND MORE
SOUTHERLY OVER THE LAKE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT, THEN VEER TO BE NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
NORTH TO START NEXT WEEK AND WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...23
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