905
FXUS61 KCLE 151121
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT PLEASANT WEATHER YESTERDAY IS SLIDING
EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S , BUT HUMIDITY STAYS COMFORTABLE WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. A LIGHT LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY RISE BY A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW SPOTS
REACHING AROUND 90 BY THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST OHIO, SO A 20% POP
WAS INTRODUCED, MAINLY NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
LOOKING AT THE BROADER PICTURE, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO
QUEBEC, SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW
NEAR THAT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY AT VARIOUS POINTS STARTING
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. AREAWIDE POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE PERSIST,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED. LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST. A TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH VARIABILITY IN MODEL
GUIDANCE ON THE LOCATION OF THIS INSTABILITY GRADIENT, SO THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED (STILL IN THE
80S). SHOULD BE MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST, THOUGH
GENERALLY EXPECTING A WEAK LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE DOWNWARD TO THE LOW 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PATCHY FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED AT
KERI AND KYNG. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE IN THE 2 HOURS
AS HEATING INCREASES MIXING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVERAGE. TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AT LEAST MVFR DISTANCES.
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
TERMINALS DROPPING EVEN LOWER, BUT GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE
OPTED TO CAP IT AT MVFR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCLE AND KERI WHICH WILL BE
IMPACTED BY A WEAK LAKE BREEZE. DURING THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME NORTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS FOR THOSE TERMINALS,
RETURNING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOWER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY,
WITH GREATER POTENTIAL RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY, AN UPTICK IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. THIS PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 4 FEET AND
MAY NEED A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS FOR
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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