626
FXUS61 KCLE 151754
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
154 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT PLEASANT WEATHER YESTERDAY IS SLIDING
EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S , BUT HUMIDITY STAYS COMFORTABLE WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. A LIGHT LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY RISE BY A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW SPOTS
REACHING AROUND 90 BY THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST OHIO, SO A 20% POP
WAS INTRODUCED, MAINLY NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
LOOKING AT THE BROADER PICTURE, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO
QUEBEC, SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW
NEAR THAT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY AT VARIOUS POINTS STARTING
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. AREAWIDE POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE PERSIST,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED. LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST. A TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH VARIABILITY IN MODEL
GUIDANCE ON THE LOCATION OF THIS INSTABILITY GRADIENT, SO THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED (STILL IN THE
80S). SHOULD BE MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST, THOUGH
GENERALLY EXPECTING A WEAK LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE DOWNWARD TO THE LOW 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS BETWEEN 050-080 ACROSS THE
REGION, THOUGH SKIES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR. EARLY MORNING
TOMORROW, THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND MIST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF TAF SITES, EXCLUDING KCLE AND KCAK. KCAK HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE LOWERED VISIBILITY, BUT THE PROBABILITY AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITH THE PATCHY FOG, VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO
MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY TO DROP
LOWER, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING,
AROUND 12-13Z AND THERE WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A WEAK, BUT
NOTICEABLE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON IMPACTING KCLE AND KERI.
LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL AND WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. CAN EXPECT ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE TO IMPACT KCLE TOMORROW AS WELL, THOUGH WITH A DECAYING
SYSTEM MOVING IN TOMORROW MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOWER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY,
WITH GREATER POTENTIAL RETURNING ON TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT, LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, ACROSS THE LAKE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST, THEN VEER TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY AND SHIFT TO BE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVES
WILL BUILD TO 1-3 FEET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE LAKE ON LATE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWS IN THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
AND WAVES WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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