517
FXUS61 KCLE 152252
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
652 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..00Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND FAIR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND SOME HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN LOW LYING PRONE AREAS, BUT FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN
NORTHWEST PA TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO.
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY. HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED NO POPS DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE AREA, ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY AND
HOW TO TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS THE AREA, BUT A MORE
FAVORABLE MCS TRACK SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A BETTER INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXISTS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM MCS
ACTIVITY COULD SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN SCENARIO IS LOW AT
THIS POINT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON ANY UPSTREAM
MCS ACTIVITY AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THAT WILL DICTATE THE DEGREE
OF LOCAL DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE
A BIT COOLER, WITH LOW TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED. THE FRONT BRIEFLY
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, DROPPING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH POPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID CHANCE
RANGE FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY, AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OVERALL THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER WILL VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z IN THE MORNING. WE HAVE THIS LIGHT FOG MENTIONED IN
TEMPO GROUPS FOR 5SM BR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A LAKE
BREEZE AT CLE AND ERI AFTER 16Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOWER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY,
WITH GREATER POTENTIAL RETURNING ON TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT, LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, ACROSS THE LAKE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST, THEN VEER TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY AND SHIFT TO BE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVES
WILL BUILD TO 1-3 FEET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE LAKE ON LATE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWS IN THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
AND WAVES WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...03
NEAR TERM...03
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...77
MARINE...23
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